It’s time for last call.
The Patriots will try to handle their last bit of regular-season business Sunday against Miami before playing their first home playoff game in six years. If the Pats win Sunday and Denver loses, they will claim the No. 1 seed and earn a bye. Otherwise, they will kick off in the Wild Card round next weekend against one of the Bills, Chargers or Texans. But first, the Dolphins.
Miami (7-9) is limping to the finish line with rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers, who replaced embattled and now benched starter Tua Tagovailoa last month. In two starts, Ewers has completed 65% of his passes for 432 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Last week, the Dolphins knocked off the Buccaneers at home, 20-17, their fifth win in their last seven games.
Defensively, Miami is still rife with holes, as they were when the Patriots paid them a visit in Week 2 and left with a 33-27 win. But will this game be as high-scoring?
Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
It’s all about the explosives.
Unable to establish a consistent, down-to-down rushing attack, the Patriots have thrived this season when TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson pull away often enough for carries of 12-plus yards AKA explosive runs. Henderson and Stevenson combined for four in the first half against the Jets last weekend, when the Patriots’ rushing success rate was only 41%. But by hitting home runs, the Pats can survive the occasional strikeout (six run stuffs with the starters in New York).
One boost this week: the Patriots should return starting left tackle Will Campbell after a four-game absence. Campbell is one of their highest graded run-blockers this season.
When the Patriots pass
If Maye has enough time, expect a repeat of Week 2.
That day, Maye carved up an undermanned, untalented Dolphins secondary and finished 19-of-23 for 230 yards and three total touchdowns. With the returns of Campbell and Kayshon Boutte (concussion), the Pats’ passing game will be at close to full strength for the first time in weeks. Look for the Patriots to spread Miami out and attack the league’s 27th-ranked pass defense by DVOA early and often.
Because even if a win doesn’t clinch the No. 1 seed, Sunday could still sharpen this offense for the postseason.
“Continue to try to get better, try to catch a stride coming into the playoffs and feel like we’re playing our best football,” Maye said of the team’s mindset. “So, that’s one of the best feelings — getting another week of practice, getting another game of action, get reps that are going to help us down the road, getting the live action and not feeling like you have a week off of getting the game action.”
When the Dolphins run
Usually against Miami, it’s all about De’Von Achane.
As one of the most electrifying young players in the league, Achane is truly a threat to score a touchdown every time he touches the ball. He averages a league-high 5.7 yards per carry, boasts elite speed and forces several missed tackles every week. Except as of Saturday morning, he was listed as doubtful, indicating he won’t play.
That means Miami should pivot to former fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright, who had 56 yards on five carries last weekend. The 5-foot-10, 208-pounder will be at the center of one of the most creative run games in the league. Facing a Miami offense heavy on late shifts and pre-snap motion, the Patriots must get plus play at the linebacker level and any defensive backs in run support.
Without captain Robert Spillane, that means the Pats will again lean on backups Christian Elliss and Jack Gibbens to control the middle and corral Wright.
When the Dolphins pass
Miami wideout Jaylen Waddle was listed as questionable this week with a ribs injury.
If Waddle’s out, that will strip the Dolphins of their only dangerous receiver, and put the offense almost entirely on Ewers’ shoulders. To help their young quarterback, look for the Dolphins to emphasize easy outlets created by play-action fakes and quick passes to their running backs and tight ends. Ewers only threw for 172 yards last week in a win over the Bucs, but finished with two touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 118 passer rating.
After studying film of that game, Vrabel seemed impressed.
“Sometimes when you put younger players in there, especially quarterbacks, you see them getting up and celebrating. He had a big scramble at the end of the game, and in five-minute (drill) there was a first down. It was a big play for him,” Vrabel said. “A lot of energy. He seems to have good command of the operation.”
One player who could disrupt Miami’s operation: defensive tackle Milton Williams, who practiced for a second straight week and looks primed to return after being out since mid-November with an ankle injury.
Game pick
Patriots 34, Dolphins 13