The Las Vegas Raiders currently hold the most valuable of NFL assets, a No. 1 draft pick. It’s a tempting prize, both gift and curse, because one way or another it’s guaranteed to define the franchise’s character for the next few seasons.
We know with near certainty what the Raiders will do with the pick; what we don’t know is what happens next. How will the franchise accommodate Fernando Mendoza? How long will it take Mendoza to bring quality football to Vegas? We don’t know, but the last decade of No. 1 draft picks provides some definite clues.
Advertisement
Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem: Make your picks for $50K in total prizes
2016: Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
The state of play leading up to the pick: The Jeff Fisher-led Rams had struggled to find a starting quarterback for several seasons before drafting Goff, cycling through Sam Bradford, Austin Davis and Nick Foles. The Rams had also migrated west from St. Louis after the 2015 season. This was not exactly a stable franchise.
How the Rams got the top pick: Traded away their first-rounder (No. 15) and a package of other picks to Tennessee.
What happened next: Fisher started the season 4-9 and got the boot in December. In the offseason, the Rams hired a 30-year-old offensive coordinator named Sean McVay. Things changed quickly after that.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: Two seasons (lost in wild-card round), reached Super Bowl in third season (lost to New England). After five seasons, Rams dealt Goff to Detroit for Matthew Stafford, who won a Super Bowl a year later.
2017: Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns
The state of play: Terrible. Cleveland had finished fourth in the AFC North for six straight seasons.
How the Browns got the top pick: The old-fashioned way, by going 1-15 in 2016.
What happened next: Well. Cleveland went 0-16 in 2017, kicking off a carousel of head coaches (Hue Jackson, Freddie Kitchens) that lasted until Kevin Stefanski was hired in 2020. Garrett was the Browns’ top player in Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value measure in 2018, a mark he’s held every year after the 2020 season.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: Four seasons (lost in divisional round). Garrett remains the team’s most indispensable player of this era.
Baker Mayfield didn’t last long in Cleveland after being drafted No. 1. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
2018: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
The state of play: Somehow even worse than the year before.
How the Browns got the top pick: See above. It’s tough not to get the top pick when you don’t win a single game.
What happened next: Mayfield, after two games, became the starter, leading the Browns to season totals of 7 and 6 wins before the landmark 11-win playoff season in 2020 — which coincided with the arrival of Stefanski.
Time to playoff berth after pick: Three seasons (lost in divisional round). The Browns dealt Mayfield to the Panthers after four seasons.
Advertisement
2019: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
The state of play: Disarray. Following the retirement of Bruce Arians in 2017, the Cardinals hired Steve Wilks for one deeply unsuccessful season, then brought in Kliff Kingsbury a few months before the 2019 draft.
How the Cardinals got the top pick: By going 3-13 in 2018.
What happened next: Murray was the Offensive Rookie of the Year, the first No. 1 pick to win that honor since Cam Newton in 2011, and still the most recent. The Cardinals improved to 5-10-1, and then 8-8, before stacking 11 wins and a playoff berth in 2021. Alas, they have not been back to the postseason since.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: Three seasons (lost in wild card round). The Cardinals released Murray after seven seasons.
2020: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
The state of play: Rough. Zac Taylor had just taken over as head coach after a mostly-mediocre 16-year run from Marvin Lewis, and his first season had not gone well.
How the Bengals got the top pick: 2-14 in Taylor’s first season.
What happened next: Burrow was on a strong run before shredding his ACL and MCL in Week 11. The Bengals reached the Super Bowl and conference championship the next two seasons, but have struggled ever since with a lackluster defense.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: Two seasons (lost Super Bowl to Rams). Burrow remains the key to Cincinnati’s fortunes … when he can stay on the field. Taylor remains the Bengals’ head coach.
2021: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
The state of play: It’s Jacksonville, the state of play is always “stumbling along a cliff’s edge.” After reaching the AFC championship in the 2017 season, Jacksonville won 12 games over the next three seasons. Total.
How the Jaguars got the top pick: 1-15 in 2020.
What happened next: Absolute chaos. Newcomer Urban Meyer coached 13 games, winning two, before getting heaved overboard. The Jaguars hired Doug Pederson to start the 2022 season, and he promptly took them to the playoffs, where Lawrence engineered a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Chargers that seemed to herald greatness. It didn’t.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: Two seasons (lost in divisional round). But Lawrence, now on his fourth head coach in five years, may have found a new level under Liam Coen.
2022: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars
The state of play: See above. Like the Browns before them, the Jags were bad enough to earn the No. 1 pick two straight years. That’s a special kind of terrible.
How the Jaguars got the top pick: 3-14 in the one-year Urban Meyer Era.
What happened next: See above. Walker has been a solid contributor to the Jaguars over his career, and he’s playing in the fifth year of his rookie deal. For hindsight purposes, the next three players off the board in the defense-heavy draft were future Pro Bowlers Aidan Hutchinson, Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: One season (lost in divisional round).
2023: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
The state of play: Unhinged. Five different starting QBs in the previous five years (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, Kyle Allen and Cam Newton), plus four head coaches (Matt Rhule, interim Steve Wilks, Ron Rivera and interim Perry Fewell).
How the Panthers got the top pick: Dealt away their first-rounders in 2023 (ninth overall) and 2024, among other picks, to Chicago. (Note: This will be relevant later.)
What happened next: Nothing good! The Panthers went 1-10 under Frank Reich until he was fired in Young’s rookie season. Carolina saw some improvement under new coach Dave Canales, reaching the playoffs last season after coming out on top via tiebreakers in a three-way tie atop the NFC South.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: Three seasons (lost in wild-card round). Young has pinballed back and forth between the bench and starting lineup. The Panthers are expected to pick up his fifth-year extension for 2027, but beyond that is a question mark.
Caleb Williams helped lead the Bears to the playoffs in his second season. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Michael Reaves via Getty Images)
2024: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
The state of play: Miserable. The combination of quarterbacks Justin Fields and Mitchell Trubisky with the Matts Nagy and Eberflus at head coach was not exactly a productive one.
How the Bears got the No. 1 pick: Thanks, Bryce Young! The Panthers’ 2-15 record in 2023 meant their draft pick — No. 1 overall — ended up in Chicago’s lap.
Advertisement
What happened next: It got worse before it got better. The Bears went 5-12 in 2024 before ditching Eberflus and bringing aboard offensive guru Ben Johnson … who immediately led Chicago to a playoff berth last season.
Time to playoff berth after pick: Two seasons (lost in divisional round).
2025: Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans
The state of play: Inexplicable. The Titans had reached the postseason three of six years under head coach Mike Vrabel, including a No. 1 seed, but fired him prior to the 2024 season.
How the Titans got the No. 1 pick: By going 3-14 in Brian Callahan’s first season.
What happened next: The Titans started 1-5 in Callahan’s second season … which became his last as head coach. We’ll see if Robert Saleh can turn the Titans’ fortunes around.
Advertisement
Time to playoff berth after pick: N/A.
So what can the Raiders take from all this? First off, there’s a surprisingly short turnaround between making that No. 1 pick and reaching the playoffs — an average of 2-3 seasons, with two teams even reaching the Super Bowl in that timeframe.
Second, what got you that No. 1 pick isn’t going to get you to the playoffs. With one exception — the Bengals, who changed coaches the year before Burrow arrived — every single team overhauled its coaching staff between making that pick and reaching the postseason. That makes sense; you generally need a change from the regime that put you in position to get that No. 1 draft pick.
Advertisement
This, then, is the challenge that awaits new Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak. One player obviously won’t turn around a franchise, but this is an organization that has started four different quarterbacks in the past four seasons — Geno Smith, Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Derek Carr. Plus, the team has only two postseason appearances, both wild-card losses, since reaching the Super Bowl after the 2002 season … before Mendoza was even born.
The good news is, virtually every organization that’s had the top pick has proven it’s possible to institute quick change. The bad news? None of those organizations except the Rams — which are a completely different team from the one that made that pick — are consistent postseason participants yet. That No. 1 pick can help turn around a team’s hopes … but he’ll need a whole lot of help around and above him to make that improvement stick.