Photo: Chad Dotson
On Sunday evening the Cincinnati Reds made their first big splash of the offseason, coming to terms on a 1-year deal with Eugenio Suarez for $15,000,000 that includes a mutual option for 2027 at $16,000,000. It came as a surprise to many as it was expected he would get both more money per season and for more than one year guaranteed as he was coming off of a 49 home run and 118 RBI season.
The Reds needed to find a good hitter to add to their lineup as they projected to be one of the worst hitting teams in the league. It felt like a waste of a pitching staff that had the best ERA+ in baseball in 2025 and had most of that same pitching staff returning. A team that barely made the playoffs could have used a real upgrade, but had to this point in the offseason basically been treading water in terms of their additions/subtractions from the 2025 club.
Eugenio Suarez likely changes that. It feels like common sense should tell us all that expecting him to hit 49 home runs again is silly. He’s been one of the better power hitters over the last seven years, but he’s not Aaron Judge. Still, he is likely going to hit a bunch of home runs and that’s the selling point for his offensive contributions because he hasn’t hit for much average lately and his walk rate has really dropped off the past two seasons.
The question is just what can we expect from Suarez in 2026? ZiPS have been updated to reflect his 2026 projection while playing for Cincinnati instead of Seattle (ZiPS projects free agents as remaining with their last team until they land somewhere else). The projection with the Mariners was for a .214/.294/.424 line with 24 doubles and 30 home runs. That was good for a 106 OPS+. The change in ballparks really helps his projection, though. ZiPS now has him with a .236/.313/.478 line with 23 doubles and 35 home runs.
No Cincinnati Reds player has hit more than 25 home runs since the 2021 season. That year they got 36 from Joey Votto, 34 from Nick Castellanos, and 31 from Eugenio Suarez. Jesse Winker also had 24 home runs that season. Last season Elly De La Cruz led the team with 22 home runs.
A team that struggled to hit for power in 2025, the Reds are probably hoping for better health from guys like Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz – the two guys who led the team in home runs but also dealt with injuries that probably held back their power somewhat during the season, as well as getting a full season from Sal Stewart instead of a month. That alone would probably go a long way to improving the power output. But if they can get 30+ home runs from Suarez in 2026, it would really push the upside for the team in the right direction on the offensive side of the ledger.