How Worried Should Pogačar Be About Evenepoel Win-Fest?

Remco Evenepoel may be on a flier so far this season, clocking up multiple wins thus far. Cycling analyst and former world number one Sean Kelly has now evaluated the chances of Tadej Pogačar getting sleepless nights over the run of victories.

Evenepoel has displayed Pogačar-like dominance in terms of the number and style of his triumphs, taking five wins in the first seven days of his program.

Kelly acknowledges his form is impressive while also putting it into context.

“I don’t think Pogačar will be worried. For the moment, no,” the Irishman told Velo on Saturday.

“Evenepoel is definitely off to a great start, but the opposition he has is not the opposition he is going to come up against when he is going to the big races like the Classics. He will be doing a Liège and Amstel and those ones, and he will come up against the big talented riders there and in some other races as well before that.

“But certainly he has a big motivation with Bora [Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe], starting out the way he has.”

Evenepoel moved to the German team over the winter following seven years with the Soudal Quick-Step setup. The Belgian squad has is one of the biggest names in cycling but doesn’t compare to Red Bull in terms of budget, staff support and the number of other big names.

That backing is likely to boosts Evenepoel’s showing in races, but so too the change in scenery after so long with one team.

That plus a much better winter of training than last time around—when the Belgian was recovering after being doored by a vehicle—has helped him to be in a vastly improved place psychologically and physically when compared to 12 months ago.

Stepping up?

Evenepoel’s victory on stage 4 of the Volta Comunitat Valenciana on Saturday was his fifth of the season. He has a solid lead in the general classification and barring something totally unexpected, is poised to take the overall on Sunday.

But does Kelly accept this is a higher level than he achieved in the past, at least for this time of year?

“I don’t think we can say it is a new level because two or three years ago he started down in Algarve and he was very dominant as well, winning the one day classic they have there,” he answered. “And winning quite a bit in the earlier part of that season. So I don’t think he is in the best form we have seen him in at this time of year.”

Kelly’s point is indeed worth considering. Evenepoel won the Figueira Champions Classic with a 55km breakaway, finishing almost two minutes clear of the next riders. He also took the individual time trial and the overall in the Volta ao Algarve, then won the final stage and finished second overall in Paris-Nice.

He was then unfortunate to have a heavy crash in the Itzulia Basque Country race but, as Kelly suggests, was undoubtedly in very good early-season form then.

The Irishman prefers to wait longer before definitively stating if Evenepoel has stepped up compared to before.

“I think it is a bit early to say before we get into more races that are contested more by bigger guys, the guys he will be coming up against later in the year.”

What’s clear, though, is that he is undoubtedly in a better place than in 2025, when he didn’t compete until April.

Next up for Evenepoel after the Valenciana race is the UAE Tour, starting on February 16. That will be followed by the Volta Catalunya, the Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.

He was due to line out against Jonas Vingegaard at the UAE Tour, but the Dane has cancelled what would have been his first race of the season due to illness. Evenepoel will however square up against riders such as Isaac del Toro (UAE Emirates-XRG) there.

Can he continue his current momentum? If he does, that might give Pogačar a little unease.