It’s Quarterfinal Thursday in the California desert, and all four men’s singles quarterfinals at the BNP Paribas Open are set to play out today. Here’s what to expect from each match along with our betting predictions for each one.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Cameron Norrie
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads 5-3
The undefeated world No. 1 continues his remarkable 2026 campaign with a perfect 15-0 record. Alcaraz demolished Casper Ruud 6-1, 7-6(2) on Wednesday, looking unstoppable as he chases a third Indian Wells title.
Standing in his way is 2021 champion Cameron Norrie, who has actually won three of their last five meetings, one of the more respectable H2H stats vs the world no 1. Norrie knows how to trouble the Spaniard, and he has always loved this tournament.
Alcaraz is trying to become one of just four players to win three or more Indian Wells titles this century, joining Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. He’s also the first man to reach five quarterfinals here before turning 23.
Predictions: Norrie’s recent record against him means this could be trickier than expected. I still cannot see an upset as Carlitos will be well prepared and his form could not be better at the moment. Alcaraz to win in 2 sets.
Jannik Sinner vs. Learner Tien
Head-to-Head: Sinner leads 1-0
Sinner survived a thriller against Joao Fonseca, winning 7-6(6), 7-6(4) in a match that featured spectacular shotmaking and tiebreak play. The Italian saved three set points in the first set and is chasing his first Indian Wells title.
Home favorite Learner Tien has been impressive but his wins has not been straight-forward and he’s been close to an exit several times. The 20-year-old American saved two match points to defeat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and reach his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal. He’s already upset Ben Shelton earlier in the week.
Sinner crushed Tien 6-2, 6-2 in the Beijing final last fall (their only meeting so far), but Tien has gained valuable experience since then. With the home crowd behind him, he’ll be looking to make this competitive.
Predictions: Well, Sinner’s 88-2 record against players ranked outside the top 20 since 2024 tells the story. It’s an interesting contrast in styles but the offensive powers of Sinner will most likely be too much for the talented American.
We would expect a more competitive match than Beijing, but the Italian should advance.
Alexander Zverev vs. Arthur Fils
Head-to-Head: Zverev leads 4-2
This should be one of the more competitive quarterfinals. Zverev beat Frances Tiafoe in dominant fashion, holding serve throughout and looking sharp. He’s into his fifth career Indian Wells quarterfinal.
Fils staged a remarkable comeback against Felix Auger-Aliassime, saving five set points in a dramatic second-set tiebreak to win 6-3, 7-6(9). The 22-year-old Frenchman is looking surprisingly strong already in his comeback after injury.
Their head-to-head is intriguing – four of their six meetings have gone to a deciding set, including Fils’s win in the 2024 Hamburg final. Fils also beat Zverev in Miami last year, though the German won their most recent encounter in Rome (clay).
Predictions: I can see this one going to three sets. Fils has the weapons and confidence to challenge Zverev and I think these courts suit him very good. I’m going for a small upset here and a 2-1 win for Fils, at five times the money.
Jack Draper vs. Daniil Medvedev
Head-to-Head: Medvedev leads 1-0
The defending champion earned one of the best wins of his career on Wednesday, outlasting five-time champion Novak Djokovic in a two-and-a-half-hour epic. Draper is riding a nine-match winning streak at Indian Wells but faces a brutal turnaround.
Medvedev, meanwhile, has been cruising. He dispatched Alex Michelsen 6-2, 6-4 in routine fashion and is on an eight-match winning streak that includes the Dubai title. No opponent has won more than four games in a set against him since Dubai. The Russian is 16-3 in 2026 with two titles.
The nightmare scenario for Draper: facing Medvedev’s relentless court coverage and baseline consistency less than 24 hours after an exhausting battle with Djokovic. Medvedev won their only previous meeting in Rome two years ago.
Predictions: Medvedev’s rest advantage and red-hot form make him the clear favorite at the bookies and I tend to agree. Draper will need a minor miracle to recover in time.