Whereas February was all about quantity on the tennis circuit, March is all about quality. A move from one month to the next marks a considerable change on the ATP Tour. In February there were ATP 250s and 500s all over the place every single week. In March there are only a pair of Masters 1000s: Indian Wells and Miami.
The Sunshine Double gets underway this fortnight with the BNP Paribas Open, where Carlos Alcaraz is the top seed and a two-time champion. No. 2 seed Jannik Sinner is back in the desert following last year’s suspension and is bidding for his first Indian Wells title. They are part of an absolutely jam-packed ATP field that features 23 of the top 24 players in the world, with only 2025 runner-up Holger Rune missing as he continues to rehab following last year’s Achilles’ injury.
Here is a breakdown of the upcoming festivities in “Tennis Paradise.”
BNP Paribas Open
Where: Palm Springs, California
Surface: Hard
Points: 1000
Prize money: $9,415,725
Top seed: Carlos Alcaraz
Defending champion: Jack Draper
Draw analysis: The BNP Paribas Open draw ceremony was held on Monday afternoon at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden. A field of 96 is balanced enough throughout the bracket, but it’s not the easiest of paths to a third title for the No. 1 seed. Alcaraz will begin his tournament against either Grigor Dimitrov or Terence Atmane, and the Spaniard’s quarter is also home to Alex de Minaur, Alexander Bublik, and Casper Ruud.
Novak Djokovic is in the top half of the draw, as well, although he also won’t be looking ahead to a possible semifinal showdown against Alcaraz. The 38-year-old Serb could run into two big servers in his first two matches — Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the second round and Hubert Hurkacz in the third. Defending champion Jack Draper is a possible fourth-round opponent for Djokovic. Daniil Medvedev finds himself in Djokovic’s section, but it remains to be seen if the Dubai champion will be able to leave in time to play in Indian Wells.
At the bottom of the bracket, Sinner could face Stefanos Tsitsipas or Denis Shapovalov in the third round, Tommy Paul in the last 16, and Ben Shelton in the quarters. Alexander Zverev’s possible opponents include either Acapulco champion Flavio Cobolli or Acapulco runner-up Frances Tiafoe in the last 16. Lorenzo Musetti, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Andrey Rublev are potential quarterfinal foes for Zverev, but Rublev is currently in the same predicament as Medvedev.
In addition to Dimitrov vs. Atmane, other first-round matchups to watch are Tsitsipas vs. Shapovalov, Joao Fonseca vs. Raphael Collignon, Alejandro Tabilo vs. Rafael Jodar, Matteo Berrettini vs. Adrian Mannarino, Alexei Popyrin vs. Jenson Brooksby, and Reilly Opelka vs. Ethan Quinn.
Hot: Carlos Alcaraz, Ben Shelton, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alexander Bublik, Daniil Medvedev, Flavio Cobolli, Jakub Mensik, Learner Tien, Luciano Darderi, Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Sebastian Korda, Rafael Jodar, Sebastian Baez, Martin Damm, Raphael Collignon
Cold: Casper Ruud, Jack Draper, Grigor Dimitrov, Arthur Cazaux, Matteo Arnaldi, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Roberto Bautista Agut, Valentin Royer, Jake Fearnley, Marton Fucsovics, Gabriel Diallo, Gael Monfils, Alexei Popyrin, Mariano Navone, Jan-Lennard Struff
Quarterfinal predictions: Carlos Alcaraz over Luciano Darderi, Taylor Fritz over Francisco Cerundolo, Alexander Zverev over Arthur Fils, and Jannik Sinner over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Semifinals: Alcaraz over Fritz and Sinner over Zverev
Final: Alcaraz over Sinner