Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev will be squaring off for the 11th time in their careers when they battle on Saturday for a spot in the BNP Paribas Open final.
Sinner holds a 6-4 advantage in what was once a lopsided head-to-head series the other way. Zverev won four of their first five encounters, but he has not prevailed since their five-set marathon in round four of the 2023 U.S. Open. It’s not a surprise, either, as Sinner really became the current version of himself in the fall of that year. The Italian defeated Zverev five times from the 2024 Cincinnati Masters through the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals, earning three of those victories in straight sets — including each of the last two.
That’s not to say Zverev can be entirely discounted. The fourth-ranked German is 11-3 this season and came within one game of reaching the Australian Open final before losing to Carlos Alcaraz. Zverev lost early in Acapulco to Miomir Kecmanovic, but he is back on track at the Indian Wells Masters with wins over Matteo Berrettini, Brandon Nakashima, Frances Tiafoe, and Arthur Fils — the last two in easy straight sets against in-form opponents.
Speaking of putting out hot streaks, Sinner had no trouble with Learner Tien on Thursday afternoon. The world No. 2 erased the 20-year-old American 6-1, 6-2 in a mere one hour and six minutes. That was preceded by victories over Dalibor Svrcina, Denis Shapovalov, and Joao Fonseca. It’s hard to see Zverev playing as well — and certainly not as aggressively — as Fonseca did on Tuesday night and Sinner still won that match in straight sets (two tiebreakers).
Whereas this is Zverev’s first Indian Wells semifinal appearance, Sinner is making his third consecutive trip to the last four in Tennis Paradise (not including his 2025 absence). The 24-year-old is playing well and should be able to maintain his recent mastery of this matchup.
Pick: Sinner in 2