College football’s championship weekend presents no bigger game than the Big Ten Championship, a clash between the sport’s lone undefeated teams — the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers. The matchup between the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 teams is set to kick off in the primetime window on Saturday at 8:00 pm ET on FOX.
Let’s get into my favorite bests for the Big Ten Championship.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes odds
Money line: Indiana +165 / Ohio State -200
Point spread: Indiana +4 (-110) / Ohio State -4 (-110)
Total: Over 48 (-110) / Under 48 (-110)
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes best bet #1: Under 48 (-110)
Similar to the SEC title game, I expect the Big Ten Championship to be a low-possession affair. The Buckeyes have operated at the slowest pace nationally all season long to preserve their health for a postseason run, and the Hoosiers aren’t far off at 125th out 136 teams in terms of tempo. Both offenses have been among the nation’s best on standard downs, making it more manageable to extend drives on third downs.
OSU and Indiana have two of the most prolific offenses in the country this year, but the defenses have been just as good if not better. Ohio State has yet to surrender more than 16 points in any game this season, averaging just fewer than eight points allowed per contest. Meanwhile, Indiana yields right around 11 points per game and has given up 20 or more just twice — both times on the road. Much of that defensive success stems from elite efficiency in the red zone, as the Buckeyes and the Hoosiers have only allowed 12 red-zone touchdowns combined. It is also due in part to forcing opponents off the field on more than 60 percent of third downs while surrendering fewer than 4.5 yards per play.
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes best player prop bet: Jeremiah Smith Over 5.5 receptions (-110)
Jeremiah Smith returned to action against Michigan following a one-game injury hiatus and all signs point to him being good-to-go for the Big Ten Championship. Smith is as matchup-proof as you can get at the college level, and while his production doesn’t quite jump off the page like it did last year, he should be an integral part of the offense on Saturday against an Indiana defense that struggles more against the pass than it does against the run.
Smith has hauled in at least six passes in seven of his 11 games this year, but allow me to provide some context. He only had five catches against FCS Grambling State due to limited playing time and Illinois likely due to the blowout nature of that game. Over his last two appearances, he has just seven receptions combined — but he picked up an injury in the blowout win over UCLA, and then last week’s game against Michigan was run-heavy due in part to wintry conditions. The Big Ten Championship will be played in a controlled environment under the roof of Lucas Oil Stadium, so Ohio State’s passing game should have a better outing this time around — with Smith being the primary beneficiary.