This Ireland squad has been avoiding storms since they left Dublin a few weeks ago.
January was positively biblical. The warm weather training camp in Portugal turned out be a bit of a washout, too.
And now, it feels like Andy Farrell’s troops are about to walk into another storm on Thursday night.
This is an exciting, but vulnerable, Ireland selection to face Antoine Dupont and Co at Stade de France.
The only selection which feels like a genuine form call from Farrell is the naming of Jacob Stockdale in the starting XV.
The Ulsterman has been rewarded for some brilliant provincial form with a spot on the left wing, at the expense of Farrell favourite James Lowe, who started two Tests for the British and Irish Lions in the summer.
It feels like Andy Farrell’s troops are about to walk into another storm on Thursday night
Otherwise, Farrell’s hand has been forced in a number of areas. At age 30, Jeremy Loughman will win his sixth international cap, in what is only the Munster prop’s second Test start and his maiden start in a Six Nations game.
Packing down against this giant French pack with a fourth-choice loosehead is not an ideal scenario for Farrell but that’s the situation facing Ireland.
And, on the far side of the scrum, Tadhg Furlong’s absences mean Leinster teammate Thomas Clarkson gets the nod at tighthead.
It’s a similar injury-driven story at full-back, with Jamie Osborne getting the nod due to the unavailability of Mack Hansen and Hugo Keenan. And in midfield, while Garry Ringrose and Stuart McCloskey were the form centres, their selection was made more straightforward by injury to Robbie Henshaw and Bundee Aki’s suspension.
Cian Prendergast, who will make his Six Nations bow on the blindside flank, has benefited from Ryan Baird’s absence, but Farrell has long been admirer of the Connacht captain and his lineout skills will be crucial, just as the were when Peter O’Mahony was the go-to pick in the No6 jersey.
Overall, it looks like a team which is going to feel the pressure in a big way in Paris.
Fabien Galthie showed his hand with an imposing matchday selection. A side featuring six players from Toulouse, four from Bordeaux and a smattering of personnel from Toulon, Lyon and La Rochelle. The crème de la crème of the Top14.
French appear keen to make a statement to kick off their campaign with a bang. Last season, they inflicted a 42-27 hammering on their opponents in Dublin and there is genuine fear Ireland could be facing another shellacking in Saint Denis.
However you assess it, Farrell’s side seem destined to spend long swathes of this Six Nations opener on the backfoot.
The only selection which feels like a genuine form call from Farrell is the naming of Jacob Stockdale in the starting XV
It’s going to be a night in the trenches for the visitors.
Which brings us to the key selection at No10.
Farrell, as expected, has backed Sam Prendergast to deliver the goods at out-half.
The Leinster playmaker, who is set to win his 14th Test cap in Paris, has been Farrell’s preferred option in recent seasons.
There is plenty to like about the Kildare native’s game. There is a calm authority about the 22-year-old, who possesses a sublime passing game. Ditto his kicking, particularly out of hand, and this Irish team seems to run most efficiently when Prendergast is confidently calling the shots.
The glaring issue with Prendergast has not gone away, however – his defence.
Time and again, Prendergast has been targeted in this area and there is no questions Galthie and his coaching team have been devising ways to expose the Ireland out-half.
Farrell was visibly irritated when the topic of Prendergast’s defence was raised during the autumn international series,
‘I understand the question, and it’s a question that obviously keeps popping up now, but I think Sam’s ability as a fly-half far outweighs a work-on within his game,’ the Ireland head coach said in November.
‘His skillset has been fantastic for all to see, and I think everyone needs to look through a little bit of a work-on, because everyone’s got work-ons and will continue to have work-ons throughout, and that’s up to us as coaches and the rest of the players to keep on working on them.’
Those inquirers won’t go away until these tackling issues are properly resolved. Is it a lack of confidence? Sloppy technique? Either way, it’s a weakness. And there is nowhere to hide in international rugby – least of all in Paris.
The big issue for Farrell is that none of his young out-halves has yet to nail down the No10 slot.
Time and again, Prendergast has been targeted in this area and there is no questions Galthie and his coaching team have been devising ways to expose the Ireland out-half
Jack Crowley had seemingly announced himself as the main man when he guided Ireland to a stunning 38-17 win against France in Marseilles two years ago.
It was Ireland’s first game since that painful 2023 World Cup quarter-final exit and the national team was about to find out what life was like in the post-Johnny Sexton era.
Crowley had seemingly arrived at the right time. The Munster out-half played every minute of Ireland’s title-winning Six Nations campaign in 2024.Then, Prendergast arrived on the scene the following November.
It’s been a tug-of-war between the pair ever since and it looked like Crowley looked had wrested back control prior to the November series.
The 26-year-old had produced a tour de force in a shock, bonus-point win against Leinster at Croke Park the previous month and seemed nailed on for the Ireland jersey. By the end of that four-game series, however, Prendergast was back in favour.
Crowley did not take his chance to end the debate and it appears to be a real source of frustration for Farrell.
The Corkman has so much to offer. He has real presence, offers a potent running threat and is a robust defender. Crowley relishes the physical side of the game and boss matters when he is on his game.
But, conversely, Crowley can make errors and can go off script. And that has cost him at international level.
Since November, Harry Byrne has joined the conversation. Prendergast’s Leinster rival returned from a loan spell with Bristol with renewed confidence last summer.
Head coach Leo Cullen backed Byrne to start big games against Leicester Tigers and Bayonne in the Champions Cup.
His clutch, match-winning penalty against La Rochelle at Aviva Stadium, when Prendergast was still on the field, felt like another big moment.
But Byrne hasn’t made the cut this time around. Prendergast has been backed to deliver, with Crowley waiting in the wings.
Plenty of others will be feeling the pressure on Thursday night. All eyes will be on Loughman on the first scrum engagement. How will Cian Prendergast fare against this imposing French backrow? Stockdale, on his first Six Nations start in four years will be scrutinised. Jamie Osborne can expect a few early aerial bombs.
Andy Farrell had a lot to process for this selection and he knows how dangerous France can be. Sam Prendergast knows what’s coming as well. He best be braced for impact.
IRELAND: J Osborne; T O’Brien, G Ringrose, S McCloskey, J Stockdale; S Prendergast, J Gibson-Park; J Loughman, D Sheehan, T Clarkson; J McCarthy, T Beirne; C Prendergast, J van der Flier, C Doris (capt).
Reps: R Kelleher, M Milne, F Bealham, J Ryan, J Conan, N Timoney, C Casey, J Crowley.