Ireland’s men’s loss to Azerbaijan in EuroBasket 2029 pre-qualifying was a shock. How it happened presents some complex questions. Emmet Ryan on a challenging set of decisions that lie ahead.
That was grim. Much as this site champions the underdog, and it was lovely to see how much it meant to the Azerbaijan squad at the end of the game, there’s a level expected of Ireland. It is one that has been earned but that brings with it expectations.
Through three games of EuroBasket 2029 pre-qualification, those expectations have squarely not been met. While the defeat to North Macedonia was expected, the manner of the losses to Luxembourg and Azerbaijan have created some complex questions.
The cost
Before getting into the how, I’m going to skip ahead to the net result of the 0-3 start. Ireland now need a combination of results so implausible that the second qualifying phase is out of reach.
That means four fewer competitive games in this cycle. Ireland has yet to make a second phase of pre-qualifying but the table was set to get there with the draw. With that is also removed the first of two opportunities to make the main qualifying draw.
Ireland is now effectively certain to re-enter at the third pre-qualifying round. That will, depending on the draw, provide either 4 or 6 more games. It’s a 50/50 chance. More importantly, Ireland’s seeding for that round is more likely to drop a line after this start.
The problem
In all three games, but especially against lower ranked Luxembourg and Azerbaijan, Ireland have been painfully slow. In short, players are spending far too much time thinking and far too little moving. The result is a style, at both ends of the floor but more visible offensively, that is painfully forced and prone to error.
It’s not a talent issue. This is arguably Ireland’s most talented group since returning to international play in 2015. For the first time since the iPhone, Ireland had the depth to field a starting five entirely consisting of players at leagues higher in quality than the Domino’s Super League.
The complexity of change that has come has, from observation, seemed too much too fast. Or rather too much in too little time to install it. That Michael Bree, the head coach that took over in the autumn, had the ambition to do so is laudable. He has however gone full rebuild and that’s a process that requires time which is in short supply in the international game.
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The thing about international sport
With a few rare exceptions, most notably cricket and rugby, national teams in sport have far less time together than club sides. With a club side there are several weeks prior to a season starting to install new ideas. There’s also time, especially in sports other than soccer, to add and evolve as a campaign goes on.
The windows that coaches have in international sport are much narrower. There isn’t time to reinvent the wheel. Even the teams that played at EuroBasket, who had over a month of prep before the event, kept their systems simpler than any club team out of necessity.
Prior to this article being written Bree has only had 6 days, excluding game days, with his sides in camps for international windows. Naturally there’s communication throughout the season but nothing comes close to working together in person. Ireland’s players are still processing the enormous change in style and that’s visible in real-time on every possession.
Had Ireland escaped the National Basketball Arena with a win, the logical course of action would have been simple to anyone watching. They didn’t and that makes matters complex.
For Azerbaijan, their win over the Ireland men’s basketball team meant the world. For Irish basketball, it made life a lot more complex. Pic: FIBA
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Stick or twist
Had Ireland escaped tonight, the obvious thing to do ahead of the game with Luxembourg would be to strip back the gameplan substantially. Radical simplification would be rational if progression to the second round was realistic. It no longer is, which means Bree and his brain trust have some thinking to do.
Now, it’s about accepting that losing on Monday carries less of a negative value than it did a few hours ago. There are three games left in this phase. That’s 6 more days, excluding game days, to get more installed or rather refine what has already been installed.
This may still require some stripping back but not to the radical degree that would be rational if phase 2 was still in play. Thinking is good, having to think while in motion is the problem. The sets simply aren’t second nature to the roster yet and how could they be? The level of adjustment is where things get complex.
Michael Bree is looking to bring Ireland up a level but it has been a difficult road so far.
©INPHO/Ben Brady
The inescapable reality
While Bree himself wasn’t available in the summer, the rest of his coaching staff was. Ireland only managed to play two games in that spell, on consecutive days against Norway. Basketball Ireland simply lacks the cash reserves required to be able to deliver the type of extensive training camp availability to the senior national teams that many of its contemporaries do.
When the second phase of games take place, in windows across August, November, and next February, Ireland will be idle. Between July of 2026 and July of 2027, when the third round starts, Ireland is due to have no competitive men’s games. Getting team camps and friend games during that phase is vital.
Bree’s goal to raise Ireland’s level isn’t just ambition. To play the basketball required to move up and compete for a place in the main qualifying, adjustments were necessary in the style of play. The talent now coupled with what is coming through is promising. Promise only gets so much. Wins and visible progress needs to come with it.