After the signings of Miles Mikolas and Zack Littell, four of the five spots in the Nationals rotation were filled. The two newcomers joined Foster Griffin and Cade Cavalli in the rotation. That left one spot for the likes of Josiah Gray, Brad Lord and Jake Irvin. A strong spring from Irvin has given him the upper hand, and I want to talk about it.
In the first half of the 2024 season, Irvin looked like an ascending pitcher. He posted a 3.49 ERA in 116 innings prior to the All-Star break. His moxie and solid stuff was just so impressive. However, it has been downhill from there. He has seen a drop in velocity and home run problems eat into his production. In the second half of 2024, he posted an ERA of 5.90, and it was more of the same in 2025.
However, Irvin was given a shot to compete for a rotation slot due to his ability to eat innings. This spring, Irvin has been very impressive. The mid-90’s velocity he showed in 2023 and 2024 has not returned, but he looks more equipped to compensate for that. His command has been really sharp and he is showing a true six pitch mix this spring.
If Irvin can throw quality strikes and manipulate the ball effectively, he does not need to throw 95 plus to be effective. We saw that in his start against the Cardinals yesterday. His fastball only averaged 92, but he was so unpredictable that it did not matter. Irvin threw all six of his pitches at least 9% of the time.
Last year, Irvin also technically had six pitches, but he mainly threw a 4-seam, a sinker and a curveball. He threw a changeup 8% of the time and used his cutter and slider 4% each. In his start yesterday, he used the cutter 14% of the time, the changeup at a 12% clip and his slider at a 9% rate.
This new mix has allowed Irvin to get more strikeouts this spring. He only struck out 6.2 batters per 9 innings in 2025. However, he has 15 strikeouts in 13.1 innings so far this spring. Last spring, he only struck out 9 batters in 16.1 innings. That is a very good sign for Irvin.
These performances should be enough to earn the big right hander a spot in the rotation. Brad Lord can slide to the bullpen and it would not be the worst thing for Josiah Gray to get a few AAA starts under his belt after missing two seasons.
However, Irvin is still going to be on a short leash. Sure, he has had a good spring, but he did post a 5.70 ERA last year. We are going to have to see it in regular season action. The velocity still being in the low-90’s also is not the best sign. I think his deep mix will allow him to pitch more effectively at lower velocities, but it is never a good thing to lose steam on your heater.
There is also going to be plenty of competition behind Irvin this year. Andrew Alvarez, Mitchell Parker, Riley Cornelio and Luis Perales are all Triple-A arms hungry for a big league call up. Josiah Gray will also be nipping at Irvin’s heels. DJ Herz is also going to be back from injury at some point this season. If Irvin or Miles Mikolas struggle out of the gates, they could be in trouble.
I like what I have seen this spring from Irvin though. The strikeout stuff is really nice to see from him. Between his deep bag of pitches, a lower arm angle and some funky release traits, Irvin has things going for him. I also really like his mound presence. He is a guy I am rooting for, but he is under pressure this year.
If he pitches like he has this spring, he will lock down a spot in the Nats rotation. However, for the first time in a while, Jake Irvin is truly under pressure. Last year, Irvin was allowed to take the ball 33 times despite poor results because the Nats did not have any pitching depth. Irvin will not have that luxury again this season, so he will have to perform.
With the Nats already optioning Mitchell Parker, the new regime has shown themselves to be willing to make big changes to last year’s team. If Irvin did not have a big spring, he could have been on the chopping block as well. However, he has earned a second chance with his performances. Now, he will have to take advantage of that opportunity when the real games begin.