Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle has entered full fight‑week pricing, with bookmakers firmly installed del Valle as the favourite on the UFC Houston card. The matchup, set for the featherweight division at Toyota Center on February 21, sits inside the main card window and is priced as a short‑term, stand‑up clash with a clear betting lean toward the Cuban prospect.
Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle UFC Fight Week Odds
On major U.S. sportsbooks, del Valle is listed between roughly −350 and −425, with Jordan Leavitt priced around +275 to +320 depending on the house. Other books widely quoted line sits at del Valle −410 and Leavitt +320, which translates to implied fair‑win probabilities of about 77% for del Valle and 23%. That gap reflects the bookmakers’ view that del Valle’s size, power and finishing record outweigh Leavitt’s experience and scrambling‑based style. Play more numbers with Stay Casino.
Round‑Total and Finish Markets
Round‑total props are tight for this UFC match, with the over/under on 1.5 rounds broadly grouped around −145 for over and +110–114 for under at several books. Those numbers suggest oddsmakers expect a finish, but not a guaranteed first‑round outcome, in line with both fighters’ histories of ending bouts early. Method‑of‑victory markets lean toward a del Valle finish, with bet‑builders offered on del Valle to win by KO/TKO or submission in the first two rounds, while Leavitt’s path is priced much longer across similar round‑specific finish props.
Both fighters are listed at 5’9” in height, but Leavitt carries a 71‑inch reach to del Valle’s 69 inches, giving the veteran a slight edge in jab and kicking range. Leavitt’s 39‑inch leg reach versus del Valle’s 41‑inch leg reach suggests the Cuban may be more comfortable in the kicking and clinch exchanges, which plays into his preference for explosive entries and top‑pressure grappling. Bookmakers’ internal “tale of the tape” style notes highlight Leavitt’s 12‑3 pro record and 75% finish rate alongside del Valle’s 10‑0 pro mark and 60% finish rate, which explains why the Cuban is still the favourite despite Leavitt’s UFC‑level experience.
Line Movement and Public Betting
There is little evidence of sharp movement on the main line, with the price settling quickly after the initial release and remaining stable through early February. The consensus shows only minor shifts, indicating that the market views the matchup as a clear‑cut prospect favourite versus a step‑up opponent rather than a coin‑flip contest.
For fight‑week positioning, the odds signal a short‑straw, finish‑heavy bout with del Valle priced as the clear athlete to withstand Leavitt’s grappling tricks and finish the fight on the feet or in top position. In practice, that means backers of del Valle are effectively paying a premium for the likelihood of a clean stoppage, while Leavitt backers are backing a veteran who has historically hurt or finished better‑fancied opponents with submissions and late‑round surges.