When Dana White announced this fight in late November, sportsbooks didn’t waste time opening the boards. Kayla Harrison checked in as a -155 favorite at with some sportsbooks, with Amanda Nunes sitting at +130. It was a respectable gap, Harrison favored, but not overwhelmingly so. The UFC’s bantamweight champ, fresh off her June submission victory over Julianna Peña, was being treated as the slight edge. Nunes, returning from two-and-a-half years away, was presented as a live underdog.
That didn’t stay static for long. Within days, most books had Harrison closer to -162 territory, which pushed Nunes toward +136 to +142. The narrative seemed settled: youth and momentum on one side, experience and ring rust on the other. Harrison was the move for favorites. By mid-December, the line tightened further. Some books were showing Harrison at -204 to -213, a significant shift. The gap widened but one can see bonuses here.
Nunes was now a sterner proposition, harder to justify at +145 or +160. For anyone considering the underdog, the value window was closing fast. Various books had settled into the -155 range by early December.
Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes Early Odds
Come late December, the lines started moving in unexpected directions across different shops. Books had Harrison ranging from -225 down to -185, depending on the bet type, with Nunes anywhere from +189 to +160. Others showed -177 and +140. The variation suggests the market was reassessing. Betting exchange painted an even tighter picture in decimal odds: Harrison at 1.44 (roughly -305 in American), Nunes at 2.38, implying something closer to a 60-40 proposition when you strip out the vigorish.
The opening consensus had Harrison at roughly 60% probability. By December, depending where you looked, that could swing to 65-67%, then back down toward 58-60% on certain books. The reverse line movement, sharps fading the favorite, seeing value in Nunes, suggests this isn’t a blowout matchup. The public likes Harrison, the oddsmakers concur, but not with overwhelming conviction.
That’s the tension: can Harrison drag this to the ground without eating a clean counter? Can Nunes keep her feet long enough to land the shot that ends it? The odds reflect genuine uncertainty about which style wins.
UFC 324 goes down Saturday, January 24, 2026, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The card airs on Paramount+ at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT as the first numbered UFC event under the promotion’s new media rights deal. Harrison and Nunes square off in the co-main event, with Justin Gaethje taking on Paddy Pimblett for the interim lightweight title in the headliner.