Sebastian Korda defeated Tommy Paul 6/4 6/3 in the final of the Delray Beach Open on Sunday. It was his third career-title, and he moves back inside the world’s top 40. He also extended his H2H over Paul to 5-2.
Conditions were blustery in Delray. They say the wind is often an “equaliser” in tennis, because it constrains what a player is able to do. You have to bring your margins in, play to bigger targets, and maybe even throw some junk the other way to make things even trickier for your opponent.
Through the first nine games Paul and Korda didn’t have much to navigate by way of wind, because both were serving excellently. Korda especially was impressive to me, and the stats backed it up, delivering a 9.2 serve rating in the first set:
At 4-5 the wind seemed to pick up even more, and Tommy opted to roll his first serve in at second-serve speeds (96 mph) right down the middle of the box in a “here, you have it” mentality. Korda’s return was sent back at an equally pedestrian rate, but the wind protected his position, and it was the first extended rally of note in the match:
“It was tricky. We were both struggling out there, it was super windy,” Korda said. “I was just trying to put the ball in the court. I was born and raised in Florida, so I’m used to the wind a little bit, but this was extreme for sure.”
— Seb Korda
And for the rest of the game, Tommy didn’t manage to send a serve in over 100 mph. He either rolled in the first, or missed it and hit a second. In these conditions, it essentially made the game a feed-out-of-the-hand drill, and Korda was the steadier of the two, securing the break to take the first set. If you want pros to have their strategy reduced to the humble 4.0 “don’t miss” weekend warrior, apply a liberal amount of wind to some scoreboard pressure:
Paul got off to the perfect start in the second, breaking off the back of a cagey 28-shot rally with a forehand winner:
But it was the lone bright spot for that wing. Paul gave the break back in the very next game, gifting four unforced errors to Korda, two off the forehand.
I’ve written plenty about the Nextgen forehand that Paul epitomises. “Compact to a fault” might summarise it, in terms of slot position. Korda’s is much quieter. There’s a lot less going on in the setup, and much more going on in the slot, and it’s kind of the billboard of what wrist extension can do for your swing:
In terms of Tennis Insights’ shot quality ratings, Korda’s forehand has consistently rated higher since 2022.
And it was the Paul forehand that again gifted another break to Korda in the very next service game:
As Korda mentioned post match, he grew up in Florida, where the wind often blows. Maybe that pedigree helped him trust his middle ball strategy more than Paul, because he upped it far more. Here’s Korda’s rally chart, with his 52-week average (orange) for placement.
And here’s Paul’s:
Or maybe it was the fact that Paul felt Korda could generate more from middle balls. Either way, Paul seemed to be unwilling to trade middle as frequently, and his forehand stats showed that his spin rate was down: a flat 2300 rpm for the match, compared to his usual 2600 rpm average. That probably ended up contributing to his spiralling error count. (There’s only 3-4 players who average as low as 2300 on the forehand).
Korda threatened to break in each of Paul’s service games down the stretch, and it could have been a 6-1 or 6-2 set. Then, as a final twist, Korda found himself in a hole at 0-40 when serving for the title. Two first serves and this brave forehand got him out of trouble:
But it was perhaps more fitting that he won the match on a point that defined it: Korda’s middle patience going unpunished from Paul’s forehand:
I didn’t dive into this match as there was little to analyse: Alcaraz was at the peak of his powers, and Fils was not, and that made for quick work. I think the highlights are still worthy of a watch:
Tennis TV dropped another video following the win, titled: Becoming the greatest shotmaker tennis has ever seen?!
And it’s not really clickbait either. It’s Federer racquet-work welded onto Djokovic/Nadal court coverage and athleticism:
Following the win I mused on Twitter/X that Alcaraz may never have a look at the Calendar Grand Slam as good as this:
Some with reading comprehension issues felt that this was an endorsement that I think Alcaraz will do it. It wasn’t. I was simply pointing out that if it was going to happen, the conditions of this year were helpful tailwinds. Fils is part of that equation. He’s a promising prospect who pushed Alcaraz to the limit last year in Monte Carlo. He’s only in his third event back from injury. Meanwhile, Alcaraz has not only won a lot, he’s developed and improved as a player, while Fils was sidelined for eight months. Draper and Rune are similar cases, and now Musetti is on the sidelines, with Fritz battling tendonitis.
Anyway just a thought.
The tour stops for no one. We continue this week in Acapulco, Dubai, and Santiago.
See you in the comments. HC