In 2026, the Nats are not likely to make a ton of progress at the MLB level, at least when it comes to wins and losses. However, we should see Paul Toboni’s new plan lead to quick results at the minor league level. The Nats have several breakout candidates in their system. One of them is 19 year old RHP Landon Harmon, and I wanted to chat about him today.
Harmon was selected in the third round of the 2025 draft, but was given a $2.5 million signing bonus. That is way above slot value, and shows the Nats valued Harmon like an early second round talent. The industry also viewed him that way, with MLB Pipeline ranking Harmon as number 48 prospect in his class.
After getting drafted last year, Harmon did not appear in any professional games, which is very common for high school pitchers. That means this will truly be his first pro season. Heading into this year, he has a lot of buzz behind his name. Fangraphs mentioned him as a guy who could be a top 100 prospect a year from now. MLB Pipeline also ranked him in the top 10 of the Nats system.
Now that we know the level of hype he has, let’s dive into what makes the Mississippi high school righty such an intriguing arm. His bread and butter is his fastball, which consistently gets plus grades. Pipeline has it as a 65 grade pitch and BA put a 70 on his heater. That makes it easily a plus pitch, with plus-plus upside.
The heater has everything you want. Harmon throws very hard, sitting in the mid-90’s. However, he can run that heater up to 98 or 99 MPH when he wants to reach back. When you look at his slender 6’5 frame, there is also more velocity to dream on. He could be a pitcher who touches triple digits one day.
However, it is more than just the velocity that makes Harmon’s fastball great. The pitch also has explosive life and comes from a flat approach angle. This makes his heater look even quicker than it is. It also has a bit of cutting action at the end as a little cherry on top. He was able to blow the fastball by even good high school hitters like Ethan Holliday at showcase events.
The heater gives him a strong foundation to build on, but there are also some interesting breaking ball shapes here. He throws both a sweeper and a harder slider. Neither are outstanding right now, but they both have above average potential. The fact he already has the ability to spin multiple different breaking ball shapes is also a positive indicator. It indicates a feel for spin and an ability to experiment.
The changeup is admittedly a work in progress right now. He did not need to use it much as a high schooler because he could overwhelm hitters with his fastball and sliders. When he did throw it, the pitch was not anything special. However, at 19 years old, Harmon has plenty of time to find an off-speed pitch.
You can teach that, but you cannot teach Harmon’s size and fastball quality. Those building blocks make him a strong candidate to be a top 100 prospect in a year. They have some differences, but Harmon reminds me of Travis Sykora after he got drafted. Both have outstanding stuff and a better feel for pitching than most kids their age.
Sykora obviously had a massive year in 2024, becoming a top 100 prospect. He was on his way to being one of the premier pitching prospects in the game before having to go under the knife in 2025. Harmon could be on a similar trajectory given his talent level.
There is already footage of Harmon at Spring Training throwing a bullpen. I do think it is a bit notable that we have seen him, but not guys like Miguel Sime or Coy James yet. It may mean the Nats are more comfortable letting Harmon be seen by the public due to feeling he is more advanced.
Another indicator to see what the Nats think of Harmon is how they assign him. If they send him straight to Low-A, that means they have a high level of confidence in him to produce right away. If they think he is a bit raw, they will have him make starts in the FCL.
Harmon should spend most of the season in Low-A, but he might get a taste of High-A if he dominates with the Fred Nats. I think that is in the cards due to the quality of his stuff. He is also a guy who should be helped by the Nats new development team. Harmon is a big ball of clay for those pitching gurus to work with. Hopefully, they can turn him into a high end prospect.