Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Virginia Cavaliers were one of the surprise front-runners to make the ACC Championship Game, but there was still work to be done before they could celebrate their first title game berth since 2019. How did that unfold for Tony Elliot’s team?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Virginia’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Virginia’s ACC Championship Game Chances
After defeating the bitter rival Virginia Tech Hokies, the Cavaliers have secured a spot in the ACC Championship Game. Finishing the year with a 10-2 overall record and a 7-1 record in the conference, Virginia has provided one of the most surprising storylines of the college football season. Now, they get to play for the conference crown and a spot in the College Football Playoff.
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Virginia had entered the day as an overwhelming favorite to reach the ACC Championship Game. The Cavaliers had multiple scenarios that could play out and still result in a trip to Charlotte. However, when Miami beat Pitt in convincing style, the situation became a little more one-dimensional. Needing a win in a notoriously tough rivalry game, they emerged victorious.
What are Virginia’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Virginia can only make the CFB Playoffs by winning the ACC Championship.
The PFSN College FPM gives Virginia a 46.9% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 46.9% chance of winning the ACC Championship. That reinforces the reality that it’s ACC title or bust for the Cavaliers, if they want to have an extended postseason stay.
Virginia is currently ranked 18th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re far out of At-Large territory and can’t move the needle with their remaining regular season action. Without an ACC Championship victory, the Cavaliers are locked out of the CFB Playoffs — but if they win out and win the title, they’re in the field.
Our simulations also give Virginia a 5.4% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.6% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.5% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.