The Mountain West Championship Game situation is extremely complicated heading into the final day of the regular season. As things stand, three teams are tied at 6-2, with UNLV able to join them with a win on Saturday. With head-to-head being inconclusive and no team currently ranked by the CFP Selection Committee, all eyes will be on the analytics system that go into the tiebreaker.
Using the PFSN College Football Playoff Meter (FPM) and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s break down the scenarios and chances for the teams in with a shot.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game?
Let’s take a look at the teams still in the mix and their current records, both in the conference and overall.
- San Diego State (6-2, 9-3)
- New Mexico (6-2, 9-3)
- Boise State (6-2, 8-4)
- UNLV (5-2, 9-2)
The scenarios in the Mountain West all revolve around the UNLV game today. If UNLV wins, then there will be four teams tied at 6-2. If they lose, then there are three teams tied at 6-2.
The full breakdown of the Mountain West tiebreakers is at the bottom of the article, but the short version is:
1) Head-to-Head.
2) College Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings.
3) Composite ranking across the following analytics: Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN’s SOR, and KPI Rankings.
4) Overall winning percentage against all opponents.
5) Record against common opponent in order of the standings.
6) Winning percentage against all common Conference opponents.
7) Coin toss.
In terms of head-to-head, in either a three- or four-way tiebreaker, there is no clear winner because there will not be a complete round-robin or a sweep for any one of the teams:
- Boise State beat New Mexico and UNLV, but lost to San Diego State
- San Diego State beat Boise State and lost to UNLV
- New Mexico beat UNLV but lost to Boise State
- UNLV beat San Diego State and lost to New Mexico and Boise State
No team is currently ranked in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, so that renders the second step of the tiebreaker unusable as well.
That means it comes down to the composite rankings across Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN’s SOR, and KPI Rankings.
- Connelly SP+: Boise State 55, New Mexico 70, San Diego State 43, UNLV 54.
- ESPN SOR+: Boise State 51, New Mexico 42, San Diego State 54, UNLV 41.
- ESPN SOR+: Boise State 45, New Mexico 54, San Diego State 41, UNLV 42.
- The SportSource rankings are not publicly published, so the final pieces of the puzzle are not yet known.
With SportsSource unknown, the current composite rankings are: Boise State (151), New Mexico (166), San Diego State (138), and UNLV (137). All of those rankings could fluctuate with today’s results, so it is too close to call between San Diego State and UNLV right now. However, with only 29 places available between the four teams, all four teams are still in with a shot when the final rankings are finalized, and SportSource numbers are included.
Boise State’s American Conference Championship Game Scenarios
Using the data we have above, Boise State is in a tough spot when it comes to the Mountain West Championship Game. Unless they can flip a 13-ranking difference to San Diego State and a 14 ranking placed to UNLV when the SportSource rankings are included, they might well be on the outside looking in if UNLV wins.
If UNLV loses, Boise State has a 15-place advantage and the head-to-head over New Mexico. That would likely mean that Boise State plays at San Diego in the Mountain West Championship Game.
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If UNLV wins, then it comes down to how the analytics break for Boise State. If San Diego State wins out from the analytics, then Boise State would have the head-to-head sweep over New Mexico and UNLV if it went to a second round of the tiebreaker.
However, if UNLV is the first team to emerge from the four-way tiebreaker, then it would come down to analytics, where Boise State appears to be on the outside compared to San Diego State.
The other issue for Boise State is that its overall record of 8-4 is the worst of the conference, meaning if it came down to a tie on the analytics, Boise State would be eliminated from the tiebreaker at that step.
UNLV’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
The current situation for UNLV is razor-thin heading into Week 14, and it all comes down to how today’s game impacts their rating and how SportSource ranks them.
If UNLV wins, ending up in an analytics tie with either Boise State or New Mexico (or both) for the second spot would be problematic. That would then revert to a tiebreaker between the teams involved, with Boise State or New Mexico winning or eliminating UNLV based on head-to-head results.
If UNLV loses, it is eliminated from contention.
San Diego State’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
Based on the current analytics, San Diego State appears to be in a strong position to advance to the Mountain West Championship Game. Unless SportSource has Boise State or New Mexico significantly above San Diego State, San Diego State looks set to be one of the two participants in the Championship Game.
If San Diego State were to be tied with anyone in terms of analytics, they would not want it to be UNLV, whom they lost to. That would be problematic if it had to revert to a two-team tiebreaker. A tie in terms of the analytics with Boise State would be fine because San Diego State has the head-to-head over them.
Things become complex if New Mexico and San Diego State are tied in terms of analytics. They do not have a head-to-head matchup, and it would come down to their results against common opponents in order of their standing in the conference. It would then depend on whether UNLV or Boise State finished higher, as New Mexico beat UNLV but lost to Boise, while San Diego State did the opposite.
New Mexico’s American Conference Championship Game Chances
According to current analytics, New Mexico appears to be in trouble. They are 38 spots behind second-placed San Diego State in the rankings, excluding SportSource, and 15 spots behind Boise State in third. Therefore, they either need to be ranked significantly higher than those teams in the SportSource rankings or need to be higher than one of them and hope UNLV loses in Week 14.
In the event of a tie in the analytic rankings, New Mexico would want to be in a two- or three-way tie with some combination of UNLV and San Diego State, as they would then have a head-to-head advantage. Their loss to Boise State means they would ideally not want Boise State in that tiebreaker.
In a three-team tiebreaker with San Diego State and Boise State, things get fun if they cannot be split by analytics. No team would have the sweep, and it would go down to the overall record, which would eliminate Boise State at 8-4.
Then, a two-way tiebreaker would come down to whether Boise State or UNLV was the higher-finishing team in the standings. New Mexico beat UNLV but lost to Boise, while San Diego State did the opposite.
Mountain West Tiebreakers
Mountain West Two-Team Tiebreakers
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team. In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be used to determine who will advance to the Mountain West Championship Game.
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1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) The highest-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings entering the final week of the regular season that does not lose its final regular-season game.
3) If either all ranked teams lose or no teams are ranked, then teams will be ranked based on the average ranking across Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN’s SOR, and KPI Rankings.
4) Overall winning percentage against all opponents (including non-conference games). Only one win against a team from the FCS level can be included in calculating the winning percentage.
5) Record against the next highest-placed team in the Conference standings that both teams involved in the tiebreaker faced. If there is a tie among teams in the standings, those teams shall be considered as a group. When using a group, both teams must have faced all teams within that group.
6) Winning percentage against common Conference opponents.
7) Coin toss
Mountain West Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) The highest-ranked team in the College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings entering the final week of the regular season that does not lose its final regular-season game.
4) If either all ranked teams lose or no teams are ranked, then teams will be ranked based on the average ranking across Connelly SP+, SportSource, ESPN’s SOR, and KPI Rankings.
5) Overall winning percentage against all opponents (including non-conference games). Only one win against a team from the FCS level can be included in calculating the winning percentage.
6) Record against the next highest-placed team in the Conference standings that both teams involved in the tiebreaker faced. If there is a tie among teams in the standings, those teams shall be considered as a group. When using a group, both teams must have faced all teams within that group.
7) Winning percentage against common Conference opponents.
8) Coin toss
If multiple teams are tied for top spot in the Mountain West standings, and two teams emerge as superior after any step, those two teams shall contest the Mountain West Championship Game. A two-team tiebreaker will be applied to determine the home and road designation.