The Rangers are about to experience life without Adam Fox, and it’s not going to be pretty. Even with a healthy Fox, the Rangers were very inconsistent on offense and on the powerplay. Now a team that is struggling to score is going to be without their best skater and their only puck mover on the blue line. Fox’s 3-23-26 in 27 games is tied for the team lead in points and assists, and the Rangers simply don’t have anyone else on the roster that can step in to fill that role as the primary puck mover and QB on the top powerplay unit.
Life without Adam Fox is more than losing one player
Life without Adam Fox is different this year than in years past. It’s easy to point to Fox’s stat line, role on the Rangers, and overall status as a top-three defenseman in the NHL and say the Rangers are going to miss him. That’s obvious. But how much life without Adam Fox is going to be much worse than many realize.
Per Peter Baugh, the Rangers had a 42% chance of making the playoffs this year without Fox. That number drops to 37% if Fox misses 10 games, which is the minimum for LTIR. If he misses 20 games, it drops to 32%. Essentially, for every 10 games Fox misses, the Rangers see their playoff chances fade by 5%. That could be more if life without Adam Fox is underestimated.
The Rangers face an absolute gauntlet this week–Dallas, at Ottawa, Colorado, Vegas– before the schedule eases up a bit for the six following games–at Chicago, Montreal, Anaheim, Vancouver, at St. Louis, Philadelphia. Even with Fox, going .500 in this stretch was the hope. Life without Adam Fox changes those expectations significantly and it’s more likely folks are happy with 3 wins, maybe 4 if they are lucky.
Fox is the single most important skater on the Rangers. This is not opinion. This is fact.
No other defenseman can move the puck
The biggest issue for the Rangers as they try to manage life without Adam Fox is they don’t have anyone that can replace his skill set. In years past, the Rangers had K’Andre Miller and Zac Jones that, while not at Fox level puck moving ability, were still able to drive offense in Fox’s absence.
Who on the Rangers now can move the puck efficiently? The only answer is Scott Morrow, who has looked pretty rough since his recall. Mike Sullivan’s deployment choices after Fox’s injury showed that he didn’t believe any other defenseman could fill that role, using five forwards on the powerplay and six forwards when the goalie was pulled. Granted Morrow didn’t dress that game, but nothing Morrow has done thus far shows he can handle that role.
To give some cause for optimism as the Rangers navigate life without Adam Fox: Morrow’s CF% and HDCF% numbers increase dramatically when he isn’t on the ice with Matthew Robertson, but his xGF% numbers tank without Robertson. It’s a small sample size, but it could mean Morrow can be far more efficient with an actual NHL defenseman as his partner.
There are really only two logical moves right now: 1) Pair Morrow with Vlad Gavrikov and hope Morrow can mimic Fox’s play driving while Gavrikov takes on more responsibility defensively, and 2) Move Braden Schneider up to the top pair and put Urho Vaakanainen with Morrow and hope an actual NHL defenseman helps Morrow out.
In discussing this with Rob, the best bang for your buck in managing life without Adam Fox is option 1, putting Schneider in the 1RD role. The Rangers are at a crossroads with Schneider, and they need to figure out whether Schneider’s future with the Rangers is as a top-four defenseman or as a trade chip (cough, Dallas, cough). This also allows Morrow to grow in easier minutes.
Life without Adam Fox begins tomorrow with Dallas coming to MSG. This could get ugly fast, but there is at least one reason to be optimistic.