Louisville vs. North Carolina prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 college basketball picks from proven model

The 16th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels take on the 21st-ranked Louisville Cardinals in a key ACC matchup on Monday night. Louisville is coming off an 87-70 win over Georgia Tech on Saturday, while North Carolina topped Syracuse 77-64 that same day. The Cardinals (20-7, 9-5 ACC), who are tied with North Carolina for sixth in the conference, are 3-5 on the road this season. The Tar Heels (21-6, 9-5 ACC), who are 4-1 against ranked opponents, are 15-0 on their home court. Caleb Wilson (wrist) and James Brown (foot) have been ruled out.

Tipoff from the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C., is set for 7 p.m. ET. UNC leads the all-time series 20-8, including 11-5 since Louisville joined the ACC. Louisville is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Louisville vs. North Carolina odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 162.5. Before making any North Carolina vs. Louisville picks, check out the men’s college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times and it entered Week 17 on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 20-11 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has simulated Louisville vs. North Carolina 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted men’s college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several men’s college basketball odds and men’s college basketball betting lines for UNC vs. Louisville:

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Top Louisville vs. North Carolina predictions

SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total (123.5 points). The Under has hit in six of the past 10 head-to-head matchups between the schools, with one push. The Under has also hit in 12 of the last 17 Louisville games, and in four of the last five North Carolina games. The Cardinals are 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games. The Tar Heels, meanwhile, are 6-4 ATS in their last 10.

The model projects the Cardinals to have four players score 11.2 points or more, including Ryan Conwell’s projected 18.2 points. The Tar Heels are projected to have two players score 15.7 or more points, led by Henri Veesaar, who is projected to score 15.7 points. The model is projecting 157 combined points as the Under clears in well over 60% of simulations. 

How to make North Carolina vs. Louisville picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins UNC vs. Louisville and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the North Carolina vs. Louisville spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.