Given the break for the Leafs we’ll keep it a bit shorter today but here a few thoughts:
Strategically taking back salary
Whether the Leafs are buyers or sellers, it seems like it would be a huge waste of Toronto’s advantage to not maximize its available cap space over the trade deadline, while limiting the commitments for next season. If Toronto is retaining salary on three deals, it’s a miss. If they aren’t taking back salary where they can, it’s also a miss.
Helping out Kyle Dubas might not be high on the Maple Leafs wish list, but taking back Kevin Hayes’ contract from Pittsburgh would make sense for the Leafs especially when Dubas’ deadline history has often involved bringing in players he’s familiar with.
Adam Henrique is someone the Oilers will be looking to dump and could be worth a look for the Maple Leafs in the remaining games of the season as well.
Beyond the pending unrestricted free agents the Leafs have the opportunity to be smart about taking back salary with some term attached as well. Who can they look at that has just been a bad fit in an organization and they think they can get more out of as a Leaf? Who might be expensive but fits a need in the Leafs roster and might be worth it if they are getting an incentive to take back that contract? And who with a strong couple of months on the Maple Leafs might be someone they can flip over the summer?
Edmonton’s Andrew Mangiapane is a name that has already come up when looking at what could make sense for the Leafs and even sticking with the Oilers, he has infinite more appeal than gambling on Trent Frederic’s contract and ability to play to it.
Is it possible that Jesperi Kotkaniemi might be an option like that out of Carolina as well? He’d certainly be worth a look if the Hurricanes need to move salary.
Given the limited number of quality pending unrestricted free agents there should be a bit more incentive to gamble on players that might just be the wrong fit for their current clubs. It’s just a matter of how many times the Leafs should feel comfortable taking that risk, and Toronto’s history with bringing in reclamation projects shows that most of the time the player doesn’t have more to give in a new setting.
Look at where other teams are at heading into the break
With the standings officially stalled until late February, there is a clearer picture of where the Leafs sit in the playoff picture. They are six points back of Boston, seven points back of the Sabres, and are behind the Blue Jackets and Capitals for the wild card race as well. Even if other teams fall out of the playoffs, the Leafs might not have the strongest case for getting in.
Teams like the Senators, Blue Jackets, and (arguably) the Leafs that got hot right before the break are going to lose some momentum so it’s probably best to just look at it as a cluster of two teams at 65 points, two at 63 points, and two at 61 points that are all somewhat out of it but will look like they are close to the playoffs right up until April. Of those teams, the Blue Jackets, Capitals, and Senators are the clubs with positive goal differentials and have a stronger case. The Capitals, like the Leafs, are light on home games remaining (the Caps have 11, the Leafs have 10) and both the Blue Jackets and the Senators have the advantage in that regard, as well as both have better road records than the Capitals or Maple Leafs.
Of the teams in the playoffs at the moment, only Detroit has a negative goal differential (minus-1 compared to the Leafs’ minus-7), and only the Boston Bruins have a losing record on the road.
The Bruins, Capitals, and Sabres are the higher on the PDO side of things and might see some regression, while the Senators, Hurricanes, Red Wings, and Panthers have all been on the unlucky side of things and could see gains down the stretch, with the Leafs sitting at 100.9, on the luckier side of things.
What is also fair is acknowledging that just as buying players like Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton at the trade deadline has done little to move the bar at the trade deadline for the Maple Leafs, selling them wouldn’t make the Leafs fall dramatically out of their long-shot run either. There is little harm in selling when the Leafs went into the break with Easton Cowan in the press box, a capable option of Jacob Quillan waiting for an extended look, and the reality of salary cap era meaning that players will be coming to the Leafs as well to balance things out.
In the hypothetical of trading Bobby McMann to the Oilers and Adam Henrique or Andrew Mangiapane as a salary dump coming back to the Leafs, Toronto still has another viable NHLer to use. The Leafs might be a little worse, but the departure of McMann isn’t a huge step backwards for the Leafs. As the number of trades increases, the impact is more significant, but realistically, the Leafs aren’t trading everyone on their trade board. And of those getting traded, McMann is likely one on the more impactful side of things anyway.
While the three game win streak was nice for Toronto and the Leafs did manage to gain four points on the Bruins in that timeframe, the Leafs are still very much on the outside looking in and planning their deadline around hope and wishful thinking instead of what history and numbers are telling them would be a huge mistake.