Maple Leafs have fully earned their terrible odds to make the playoffs

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The number doesn’t lie.

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The Maple Leafs have morphed into one of the worst teams in the National Hockey League and their odds of making the playoffs reflect as much.

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At moneypuck.com, a website that tracks all things NHL, as of Saturday morning the Leafs are given a 6.9% chance of taking part in the Stanley Cup tournament next April. Only the Nashville Predators, who could begin a fire sale at any moment, have worse odds at 6%.

With a record of 10-11-3 through 23 games heading into their match on Saturday night in Pittsburgh against the Penguins, the Leafs have 23 points.

Only four NHL teams — the Vancouver Canucks and Buffalo Sabres (22 each), the Calgary Flames (21) and the Predators (20) — had fewer NHL points through games on Friday.

A couple of things hold true with the Leafs and their spot in the Eastern Conference standings.

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If you’re going with coach Craig Berube’s optimistic glass-half-full approach, you will point out that the Leafs are just five points behind the Ottawa Senators for third place in the Atlantic Division. And they’re just six points behind the Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers, who each have 29 points, for a wildcard spot.

If you’re taking the glass-half-empty approach — and really, how can it be anything else as the Leafs show few signs of digging themselves out of this self-inflicted hole — you will remember that six teams sit between the Leafs and the second wildcard, and that the Leafs have to leapfrog three Atlantic Division teams to arrive in the top three. Keep in mind, too, that the Leafs are 2-6-0 within the division (and one of those wins came back on Oct. 8 in the season opener in Montreal). They won’t be passing anybody if that record doesn’t vastly improve.

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Berube’s future in doubt

And if Berube isn’t on thin ice now, there’s no way to see how he wouldn’t be if the Leafs lose in Pittsburgh.

Toronto has won a game and lost a game to start the five-game trip and only beat Columbus on Wednesday in overtime because goalie Joseph Woll was excellent. The 2-0 lead in Washington against the Capitals on Friday night was proven to be, no surprise, an illusion in an eventual 4-2 loss.

What we do know is that if Berube is fired any time soon, the new coach would inherit a mess that might be beyond repairing. Sure, strides forward could be taken, but enough to roar back and claim a playoff spot? We don’t see it.

The lineup is a guessing game every night.

Max Domi goes from playing on the Auston Matthews line in Columbus to being a healthy scratch in Washington.

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Sammy Blais was inserted into the lineup in Montreal against the Canadiens last Saturday to add an element of physicality. He was a non-factor in a 5-2 Leafs loss, recording just two hits, and was placed on waivers days later. The Canadiens reclaimed him on Thursday after the Leafs plucked him off waivers from Montreal in October.

In his two games since returning from a lower-body injury, Matthews and his line have been outshot 17-5 in 23 1/2 minutes of five-on-five time.

The Leafs didn’t have early media availability in Pittsburgh, so any potential lineup changes won’t be known until late in the afternoon.

Since general manager Brad Treliving gave Berube a vote of confidence on Nov. 18, at the same time saying the Leafs have “too much vanilla,” there has been nothing to suggest in the team’s play that anything will be much different going forward.

Woll has been sharp, but a lot more than good netminding is required.

So the Leafs sit on the final weekend of November with terrible odds to make the playoffs. Their run of earning a postseason berth in nine consecutive years is in peril, to say the least.

It’s a lowly spot that the club has earned.

tkoshan@postmedia.com

X: @koshtorontosun

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