Match Preview: Chelsea vs Sunderland

Match Preview: Chelsea vs Sunderland – Premier League 2025/26

By e360hubs

As Chelsea prepare to host Sunderland at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League, both teams come into this match with strong performances in recent weeks. This preview dives into the form, statistics, and key metrics of both teams based on their last five matches, considering opponent strength, possession, shots, goals, and other critical factors. We’ll also analyze goal probabilities, half-time/full-time outcomes, and over/under goal markets to predict the likely outcome of this encounter.

Team Standings and Context

• Chelsea: Currently 5th in the Premier League with 14 points (4W, 2D, 2L, 16 GF, 9 GA). Chelsea have been formidable, particularly at home, and are in contention for a Europa League spot.
• Sunderland: Sitting 7th with 14 points (4W, 2D, 2L, 9 GF, 6 GA). Sunderland have defied expectations as a newly promoted side, showing resilience and defensive solidity.

Both teams are level on points, but Chelsea’s attacking output and home advantage contrast with Sunderland’s disciplined, low-scoring approach. This match, set for October 25, 2025, promises to be a fascinating clash between a top-tier side and a gritty underdog.

Last Five Matches: Chelsea

Chelsea’s recent form across all competitions (W-W-W-L-W) showcases their attacking prowess and ability to compete against strong opposition. Below is a breakdown of their last five matches, including opponent strength based on league position (1st-6th: Strong, 6th-11th: Average, 11th-20th: Weak) and key statistics:

1. Chelsea 5-1 Ajax (UCL, Home)
   • Opponent Strength: Strong (Ajax, top European side)
   • Result: Win
   • Goals: 5 scored, 1 conceded (HT: 4-1)
   • Possession: ~55% (est.)
   • Shots: ~15 shots, ~8 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: Chelsea dominated a strong Ajax side, showcasing clinical finishing and attacking flair in the Champions League.
2. Nottingham Forest 0-3 Chelsea (EPL, Away)
   • Opponent Strength: Weak (18th)
   • Result: Win
   • Goals: 3 scored, 0 conceded (HT: 0-0)
   • Possession: ~60% (est.)
   • Shots: ~14 shots, ~6 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A comfortable away win against a struggling side, with Chelsea breaking through in the second half.
3. Chelsea 2-1 Liverpool (EPL, Home)
   • Opponent Strength: Strong (4th)
   • Result: Win
   • Goals: 2 scored, 1 conceded (HT: 1-0)
   • Possession: ~48% (est.)
   • Shots: ~12 shots, ~5 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A statement victory against a top-four side, highlighting Chelsea’s ability to compete with elite teams.
4. Chelsea 1-0 SL Benfica (UCL, Home)
   • Opponent Strength: Strong (top European side)
   • Result: Win
   • Goals: 1 scored, 0 conceded (HT: 1-0)
   • Possession: ~50% (est.)
   • Shots: ~10 shots, ~4 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A narrow but controlled win against a European heavyweight, showing defensive resilience.
5. Chelsea 1-3 Brighton (EPL, Home)
   • Opponent Strength: Average (10th)
   • Result: Loss
   • Goals: 1 scored, 3 conceded (HT: 1-0)
   • Possession: ~55% (est.)
   • Shots: ~13 shots, ~5 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: Chelsea’s only loss in their last five, exposed by Brighton’s counter-attacking efficiency.

Last Five Matches: Sunderland

Sunderland’s form (W-L-W-D-D) reflects their defensive organization and ability to grind out results against varied opposition. Here’s a detailed look at their last five Premier League matches:

1. Sunderland 2-0 Wolverhampton (EPL, Home)
   • Opponent Strength: Weak (20th)
   • Result: Win
   • Goals: 2 scored, 0 conceded (HT: 1-0)
   • Possession: ~45% (est.)
   • Shots: ~10 shots, ~4 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A solid home win against a struggling side, with Sunderland controlling the game defensively.
2. Manchester United 2-0 Sunderland (EPL, Away)
   • Opponent Strength: Average (9th)
   • Result: Loss
   • Goals: 0 scored, 2 conceded (HT: 2-0)
   • Possession: ~40% (est.)
   • Shots: ~8 shots, ~2 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: Sunderland struggled against an average side, failing to create significant chances.
3. Nottingham Forest 0-1 Sunderland (EPL, Away)
   • Opponent Strength: Weak (18th)
   • Result: Win
   • Goals: 1 scored, 0 conceded (HT: 0-1)
   • Possession: ~42% (est.)
   • Shots: ~9 shots, ~3 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A gritty away win, with Sunderland capitalizing on limited chances.
4. Sunderland 1-1 Aston Villa (EPL, Home)
   • Opponent Strength: Average (11th)
   • Result: Draw
   • Goals: 1 scored, 1 conceded (HT: 0-0)
   • Possession: ~48% (est.)
   • Shots: ~11 shots, ~4 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A hard-fought draw against an average side, showing Sunderland’s resilience at home.
5. Crystal Palace 0-0 Sunderland (EPL, Away)
   • Opponent Strength: Average (8th)
   • Result: Draw
   • Goals: 0 scored, 0 conceded (HT: 0-0)
   • Possession: ~45% (est.)
   • Shots: ~9 shots, ~3 on target (est.)
   • Analysis: A disciplined defensive performance to secure a point on the road.

Statistical Comparison

Metric	Chelsea (Last 5)	Sunderland (Last 5)
Wins	4	2
Draws	0	2
Losses	1	1
Goals Scored	12	4
Goals Conceded	5	3
Avg. Possession	~53-57%	~42-48%
Shots per Game	~12-15	~8-11
Shots on Target	~5-8	~2-4
Home/Away Record	3W-1D-1L (Home)	1W-1D-2L (Away)

Key Observations:

• Chelsea’s Attack vs. Sunderland’s Defense: Chelsea’s 12 goals in 5 matches (2.4 per game) highlight their attacking potency, especially at home (2.0 goals per game). Sunderland’s defense is robust, conceding just 0.6 goals per game, but their away form (1 goal scored in 4 games) suggests vulnerability against stronger attacks.
• Possession and Chance Creation: Chelsea dominate possession and create more shots, particularly on target. Sunderland’s lower possession and shot count indicate a more conservative, counter-attacking style.
• Opponent Strength: Chelsea have faced and beaten stronger teams (Ajax, Liverpool, Benfica), while Sunderland’s wins have come against weaker sides (Wolverhampton, Nottingham Forest). Sunderland’s draws against average teams (Aston Villa, Crystal Palace) show resilience but limited attacking threat.

Goal Probability and Over/Under Analysis

Based on the teams’ scoring and conceding trends, we can estimate the likelihood of goals in this match:

Chelsea Goal Probabilities

• Over 1.5 Goals: High (80%)
  Chelsea have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, including against strong opposition. At home, they’ve scored 10 goals in 5 games (2.0 per game).
• Over 2.5 Goals: Moderate (50%)
  Chelsea exceeded 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches (5 vs. Ajax, 3 vs. Nottingham Forest). Against a defensively solid Sunderland, they may be limited to 2 goals.
• Over 3.5 Goals: Low (20%)
  Chelsea have only scored 4+ goals once in their last 5 (5 vs. Ajax). Sunderland’s defense is likely to keep the scoreline tight.
• Over 4.5 Goals: Very Low (5%)
  Chelsea’s highest goal tally was 5, but this was an outlier against Ajax. Sunderland’s defensive discipline makes this unlikely.

Sunderland Goal Probabilities

• Over 1.5 Goals: Low (30%)
  Sunderland have scored 1.5+ goals in only 1 of their last 5 matches (2 vs. Wolverhampton). Their away form (1 goal in 4 games) suggests limited scoring potential.
• Over 2.5 Goals: Very Low (10%)
  Sunderland have not scored 3+ goals in any of their last 5 matches. Against Chelsea’s strong defense (3 GA in 5 home games), this is improbable.
• Over 3.5/4.5 Goals: Negligible (<5%)
  Sunderland’s low shot count and conservative approach make high goal tallies highly unlikely.

Match Goal Probabilities

• Over 1.5 Match Goals: Very High (90%)
  Chelsea’s scoring rate and Sunderland’s ability to score in 3 of their last 5 matches suggest at least 2 goals in the game.
• Over 2.5 Match Goals: Moderate (60%)
  Chelsea’s home games have seen 2.5+ goals in 3 of 5 matches, but Sunderland’s defensive solidity could keep the scoreline lower.
• Over 3.5 Match Goals: Low (30%)
  Only 2 of Chelsea’s last 5 home games and none of Sunderland’s last 5 away games exceeded 3.5 goals.
• Over 4.5 Match Goals: Very Low (10%)
  High-scoring games are rare for Sunderland, and Chelsea’s defense is unlikely to concede multiple goals.

Half-Time/Full-Time (HT/FT) Probabilities

Based on recent trends:

• Chelsea/Chelsea (Chelsea leading at HT and FT): 50%
  Chelsea led at half-time in 4 of their last 5 home games and won 3 of them. Their dominance at Stamford Bridge makes this a likely outcome.
• Draw/Chelsea: 30%
  Sunderland’s defensive approach could keep the first half tight, but Chelsea’s second-half quality often shines through (e.g., 3-0 vs. Nottingham Forest after 0-0 at HT).
• Draw/Draw: 15%
  Sunderland’s ability to draw away games (e.g., 0-0 vs. Crystal Palace) suggests they could hold firm for a period, but Chelsea’s attack is likely to break through.
• Sunderland/Chelsea or Sunderland/Sunderland: Low (<5%)
  Sunderland have not led at half-time in any of their last 4 away games, and their low scoring rate makes an upset unlikely.

League Strength Consideration

This match is in the Premier League, one of the strongest leagues globally. Chelsea’s experience against top European sides in the Champions League (Ajax, Benfica) gives them an edge in handling high-pressure situations. Sunderland, as a newly promoted side, have exceeded expectations but lack the depth and attacking quality of top-tier teams. Their success against weaker and average sides (Wolverhampton, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa) is notable, but facing a strong side like Chelsea at home is a significant step up.

Prediction

Conclusion

Chelsea’s attacking firepower and home advantage make them the likely winners against a resilient but offensively limited Sunderland side. Expect Chelsea to control the game, with Sunderland aiming to frustrate and counter. A narrow but comfortable Chelsea victory is the most probable outcome, with the Blues continuing their push for a top-four spot.