Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.
Pick a bubble team, any bubble team. Chances are, that randomly selected squad took a disappointing loss this weekend. Whether it was a coin flip road game, a huge chance at home or simply a must-win game, most of the bubble belly-flopped on the regular season’s final weekend.
Take that knowledge with you as you read through this Monday refresh of the Bubble Watch. If it starts sounding repetitive — “Team A lost, which is bad, but so did everyone else, so it’s not that bad” — just know that we have been forced into this perspective by the way these teams played.
It was essentially the opposite of the saying, “A rising tide lifts all boats.” The tide receded this weekend, lowering the bar necessary to sneak inside the at-large cutline. In fact, the cavalcade of losses even elevated certain losing teams.
The real winners were the few teams that managed a victory. VCU won a road game at Dayton, and the Rams’ case gained incremental strength with every high-major team that came up short. Stanford and Boise State resuscitated their bubble hopes with noteworthy road triumphs. And Ohio State and Texas A&M suddenly seem quite safe after each posted a positive result among the rest of the bubble’s struggles.
What does it all mean? Well, Championship Week is going to remain a free-for-all. The last teams in and the first teams out are clustered so closely than any big win or bad loss could make a crucial difference in a team’s Selection Sunday fate The stakes make for thrilling theater, so as much as you can, tune in to the bonanza of basketball that lies ahead!
Check out the primer below before you dive in; many of the key terms will be repeated throughout the article. And for a projection of the actual bracket, here’s Joe Rexrode’s latest Bracket Watch.
- Teams are listed alphabetically within their sections.
- Locks are teams that have reached a 100 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast. This blends both current resume and forward-looking projections.
- Should Be In teams are a few wins from Lock status and not really in much danger of missing the dance right now.
- In the Mix teams are the true bubble cases.
- On the Fringe teams are a win or two away from true bubble consideration.
- Resume metrics are backward-looking and try to measure a team’s accomplishments. Think: “What has this team done?” These metrics are more important for selection to the field.
- Quality metrics are forward-looking and attempt to project future performance. Think: “How good is this team?” These metrics are more influential for seeding.
Movement
Up to Lock: Miami (Ohio), TCU, UCLA
Up to Should Be In: Texas A&M
Up to In the Mix: Boise State, Stanford
Added to On the Fringe: Oklahoma
Down to In the Mix: None
Down to On the Fringe: Belmont, Oklahoma State, USC
Dropped from On the Fringe: Liberty
Current Totals
Locks: 37
Should Be In: 2
In the Mix: 17
On the Fringe: 6
ACC
Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (Fla.) North Carolina, Virginia
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: California, NC State, SMU, Stanford, Virginia Tech
On the Fringe: None
In The Mix
California (21-10, 9-9; WAB rank: 50)
Profile Strengths: Four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Awful nonconference SOS, poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Golden Bears’ up-and-down campaign continued with a road loss at Wake Forest on Saturday. While not an overly harmful defeat, it did prevent Cal from making up ground against the rest of the field. Cal now gets a dangerous ACC tournament opener against Florida State, which has won nine of its past 11 games and is one of the hottest teams in the league right now. Cal has to find a way to win that one to be in the picture. Beating the Seminoles would also earn the Bears a swing at shorthanded Duke in the quarterfinals.
NC State (19-12, 10-8; WAB rank: 43)
Profile Strengths: Overall strong metrics, solid Q1/Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess an awful Q4 loss.
Looking Ahead: Few teams with postseason hopes are playing worse than NC State right now. Since Feb. 9, the Wolfpack are 1-6 and rank 82nd in the country per Bart Torvik. And yet … they are almost assuredly still in the field as of today. Five Q1 wins and solid metrics across the board override their nightmarish current form. Will Wade’s team could get a rematch with Stanford in the ACC tournament; taking another loss to the Cardinal (or worse, to Pitt) would put an NCAA Tournament appearance in serious jeopardy.
SMU (19-12, 8-10; WAB rank: 48)
Profile Strengths: Decent metrics, zero bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Limited high-end wins, only 8-12 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Amid a losing streak, SMU badly needed a strong performance at Florida State on Saturday. Instead, the Mustangs could not climb out of an 18-point halftime hole, eventually losing by 13. The absence of BJ Edwards has clearly hamstrung the Ponies, but even with that caveat, SMU’s four-game losing streak has put it in troubling territory. Should the Mustangs lose to Syracuse to kick off the ACC tournament, their NCAA Tournament hopes could be gone.
Stanford (20-11, 9-9; WAB rank: 49)
Profile Strengths: Five Q1 wins, 9-8 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Three Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: As seemingly every other bubble team above Stanford hit the eject button on Saturday, the Cardinal snagged a majorly beneficial two-fer by winning on the road at fellow ACC bubbler NC State. That victory has placed Kyle Smith’s team squarely back in the picture, and if it can win two games at the ACC tournament (over Pitt and NC State again), Stanford will have a sneaky strong resume despite its Q3 struggles. Getting all the way to the semifinals via a win over Virginia would make the Cardinal’s case even more compelling.
Virginia Tech (19-12, 8-10; WAB rank: 46)
Profile Strengths: Decent resume metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Poor quality metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Hokies battled back from a big halftime deficit at archrival Virginia, but the rally ultimately fell short, landing them in the town square of Bubble City, USA. Everything about this profile is bubblicious, from metrics to quadrant records to the presence of a bad loss. That means Mike Young’s team has some upward mobility at the ACC tournament, where it will need a win over Wake Forest in the opening round and then an upset of Clemson in the second round. The Hokies did already win at Clemson this season, so perhaps they will enter that game with some additional confidence.
Big 12
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Cincinnati
On the Fringe: Arizona State, Oklahoma State
In the Mix
Cincinnati (17-14, 9-9); WAB rank: 62)
Profile Strengths: Two high-end Q1A wins, strong quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Possess a Q4 loss, poor resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: With a WAB ranking this low, the Bearcats need at least two wins at the Big 12 tournament to have realistic hopes. The draw sets up well for that, with Utah and a reeling UCF waiting in Kansas City, though Cincy might realistically need a win over Arizona in the quarterfinals, as well. Currently, the Bearcats are hoping for some kind of special consideration from the selection committee for their improved form since Jizzle James rejoined the team. However, that may be too flimsy of a case to push Wes Miller’s team into the field.
Big East
Locks: St. John’s, UConn, Villanova
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Seton Hall
On the Fringe: None
In The Mix
Seton Hall (20-11, 10-10; WAB rank: 58)
Profile Strengths: Not much, right now.
Profile Weaknesses: Iffy metrics, only one Q1 win, two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: A quick glance at the “Profile Strengths” line tells the tale of where Seton Hall stands after coming up short against St. John’s on Friday. The Pirates cannot really hang their hats on a single aspect of their profile, which means they are bordering on auto-bid-or-bust. Would a Big East tournament title game appearance, featuring wins over Creighton and St. John’s, be enough? Shaheen Holloway’s team needs to win both games and find out.
Big Ten
Locks: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Wisconsin
Should Be In: Ohio State
In the Mix: Indiana
On the Fringe: USC
Should Be In
Ohio State (20-11, 12-8); WAB rank: 35)
What They Need: In the current bubble environment, a three-game winning streak that includes a win over Purdue and bubble rival Indiana gets you bumped up a category. While others have faded, the Buckeyes have gotten healthier and are playing better basketball down the stretch. As a result, it is hard to imagine them missing the NCAA Tournament. A bad loss to Maryland or Oregon plus a shrinking bubble could theoretically make it interesting, but that is a very unlikely scenario. Ohio State could be locked into a bid simply by seeing Iowa advance to play them in the Big Ten tournament; that would ensure OSU cannot take a bad loss.
In The Mix
Indiana (18-13, 9-11; WAB rank: 47)
Profile Strengths: Two excellent high-end Q1A victories, no bad losses.
Profile Weaknesses: Only 6-13 against the top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Indiana was generally noncompetitive in a game it desperately needed at Ohio State on Saturday, trailing by as many as 24 points in a snooze of a second half. The Hoosiers have now lost five of six to end the regular season and have major work to do in Chicago at the Big Ten tournament. Their climb starts with the winner of Penn State and Northwestern, the latter of which just won at Indiana two weeks ago. The Hoosiers need that one plus a second victory over archrival Purdue to have any level of confidence on Selection Sunday.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Missouri, Texas A&M
In the Mix: Auburn, Texas
On the Fringe: Oklahoma
Should Be In
Missouri (20-11, 10-8; WAB rank: 39)
What They Need: The Tigers missed a golden chance to lock up a bid on Saturday, losing in overtime to Darius Acuff-less Arkansas. Even with that home loss, though, Mizzou remains in solid shape thanks to the carnage that happened below them on the bubble. The Tigers’ clean resume and high-end wins should get the job done, and they can seal the deal by taking down the winner of Kentucky-LSU in the SEC tournament.
Texas A&M (21-10, 11-7; WAB rank: 36)
What They Need: Texas A&M did what few Bubble Watch squads dared to try this weekend: Win a basketball game. The Aggies needed three overtimes to do it, but they eventually got a victory at LSU, and road wins in league play are precious at this time of year. Texas A&M now has strong metrics, five Q1 wins, and zero bad losses. A loss to the Oklahoma/South Carolina winner plus multiple bid stealers could put the Aggies in a squeeze, but given the unlikelihood of that combination, we are moving Bucky McMillan’s team up a category to Should Be In.
In The Mix
Auburn (16-15, 7-11; WAB rank: 45)
Profile Strengths: Solid metrics, four Q1 wins.
Profile Weaknesses: Quantity of losses, way under .500 vs. top two quadrants.
Looking Ahead: Auburn did not get it done at archrival Alabama and heads to Nashville barely above .500 overall. The sheer quantity of losses is an issue in itself, but so are the Tigers’ declining resume metrics. For Auburn to become the first at-large team ever with 16 losses, it needs to be a special case, and at this point, very little on Auburn’s resume stands out as special. Perhaps a run through the SEC tournament could change that: The Tigers are lined up to face Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt through the quarterfinals.
Texas (17-13, 9-9; WAB Rank: 44)
Profile Strengths: Strong high-end wins and quality metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Have a Q3 loss, shaky resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: All Texas had to do was beat rival Oklahoma at home, and the Longhorns would have likely leapt up a category alongside Lone Star State brethren Texas A&M. Instead, the Longhorns lost a heartbreaker in overtime, and they remain in the thick of the bubble battle as a result. They also get a dangerous game with Ole Miss to start the SEC tournament: While still a Q2 game, a loss to the Rebels would be a drag on Texas’ WAB. Should Texas win there, Georgia awaits in the second round.
The Rest
Locks: Gonzaga, Saint Louis, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: Boise State, New Mexico, San Diego State, Santa Clara, VCU
On the Fringe: Belmont, Nevada, South Florida
In The Mix
Boise State (20-11, 12-8 Mountain West; WAB rank: 53)
Profile Strengths: 8-9 record vs. top two quadrants, excellent nonconference SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, plus a non-Division I loss.
Looking Ahead: The Broncos cooled off a red-hot Colorado State team this weekend, winning on the road in Fort Collins to halt the Rams’ eight-game winning streak. That victory vaulted Boise past a bevy of other fringe bubble contenders, and they now have a semi-realistic path to the at-large field. The tricky part with Boise’s resume remains the season-opening home loss to Division II Hawaii Pacific: It is not included in WAB, but it was not an exhibition game, so we do not fully know how much (or how little) the selection committee will penalize the Broncos for it.
New Mexico (22-9, 13-7 Mountain West; WAB rank: 52)
Profile Strengths: 8-7 vs. top two quadrants.
Profile Weaknesses: Only two Q1 wins, took two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: The Lobos gave it 40 minutes of all-out effort but came up just short at Utah State to miss out on forcing a three-way tie atop the league. That also marked New Mexico’s second loss of the week, and the thin margins of the bubble knocked the Lobos further down the S-Curve. They now await the winner of Boise State and San Jose State in the Mountain West quarterfinals; they should be rooting for Boise, because beating the Broncos would actually register as a meaningful result.
San Diego State (20-10, 14-6 Mountain West; WAB rank: 55)
Profile Strengths: Excellent NC SOS.
Profile Weaknesses: One Q3 loss, fringe resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: The Aztecs stopped their slide on Saturday, edging out UNLV at home to clinch the No. 2 seed in the Mountain West tournament. They probably need an appearance in the championship game to have a shot at an at-large, including what could be a “loser leaves town” showdown with fellow bubbler New Mexico in the semifinals. But first, SDSU must beat the winner of Colorado State and Fresno State; the Rams just knocked off the Aztecs in late February.
Santa Clara (25-7, 15-3 West Coast; WAB rank: 40)
Profile Strengths: Competitive metrics, solid Q1+Q2 record.
Profile Weaknesses: Worst loss in bubble group, only one Q1 win.
Looking Ahead: Santa Clara might have had the best Saturday of any bubble team. Did the Broncos play a game that day? Well, no, but that also means they did not lose. Santa Clara did post a victory against Pacific late Sunday night in Las Vegas, setting up a huge rubber match with Saint Mary’s in the WCC semifinals. That might function as a “win and you’re in” clash for Herb Sendek’s squad.
VCU (24-7, 15-3 Atlantic 10; WAB rank: 42)
Profile Strengths: No bad losses, competitive metrics.
Profile Weaknesses: Just two Q1 wins.
Looking Ahead: VCU’s Friday win at Dayton aged incredibly well as the rest of the weekend played out, and the Rams are in surprisingly solid shape after the dust has settled. The Rams have now won 13 of their last 14 and enter the A-10 tournament as the league’s clear hottest team thanks to Saint Louis’ alarming fade. That means the Rams have a reasonable path to the auto-bid in Pittsburgh, which would exterminate any lingering bubble concerns.
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