Expert picks are back for the first matchup of the year between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in the championship match of the Monte-Carlo Masters. A three-team panel makes its predictions for Sunday afternoon.
Ricky: How tough to call is the Monte-Carlo final? Alcaraz opened as the favorite at some sportsbooks; Sinner opened as the favorite at others. The bottom line — as is always the case when the two best players in the world collide — is that anything less than an instant classic would be a disappointment. That being said, I give Alcaraz the edge for two reasons — one not especially significant and the other potentially difference making. First, the Spaniard should be ever so slightly more motivated. Whereas Sinner won the Sunshine Double, Alcaraz struggled in both Indian Wells and Miami. This is also the 22-year-old’s last real chance to maintain the top ranking before Sinner inevitably takes over later in April and then surely holds onto it for a while. Second, and more importantly, this is clay we are talking about. Alcaraz’s 11-6 overall lead in the head-to-head series features a 4-1 record on clay, including 3-0 in their last three such meetings. Sinner has been close on clay, but “close” is a lot different than winning when Alcaraz is on the other side of the net. Give me the world No. 1 to win another close one. Alcaraz in 3: 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3.
Cheryl: The first time I attended Monte-Carlo, the year was 2008 and the final featured Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. It was at the height of their respective careers and the final carried a certain mystique around the grounds of the Monte-Carlo Country Club. Sunday’s final with Alcaraz and Sinner feels the same. There’s a sense that every match between the two of them is destined to become part of tennis lore. Like their Fedal fathers before them, the rivalry is a bit lopsided. Put simply, Alcaraz has Sinner’s number and he has it pretty emphatically on clay. They’re the two best players in the world by a wide margin — but surface matters. Sinner is a better ball striker. I might even go so far as to call him one of the best ball strikers of all time. The problem for the Italian is that clay doesn’t reward clean ball-striking the way hard courts do. Alcaraz employs better clay-court tactics, as attested by his 11 titles to Sinner’s one on this surface. The second seed should grab a set, but don’t see him taking the title. Alcaraz in 3: 7-5, 6-7(4), 7-5.
Pete (Tennis Acumen): Despite the fact that we were treated to no less than six Alcaraz vs. Sinner matches in the span of six months beginning in May of 2025, this will somehow be their first meeting in 2026. Following a somewhat slow start to last season, Monte-Carlo was where Alcaraz simply started to steamroll the ATP field for most of the rest of the year — winning an additional seven titles. Sinner has played solid tennis this week in reaching his first Monte-Carlo final. The Italian has yet to win a Masters 1000 on clay and owns just one clay-court title in his career — at a 250 in Umag (2022), ironically against Alcaraz. Sinner is going for his third consecutive Masters 1000 title in 2026 and has dropped just one set this week en route to the quarters. Even though Sinner is showing impeccable form and is riding a 17-match winning streak, Alcaraz is the better clay-court player and he will look to replicate his own superiority over the ATP field now that clay court-season is underway. The defending champ collects his ninth Masters 1000 and fifth on dirt. Alcaraz in 3: 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4.