Surprisingly, it will be the first-ever showdown between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Bublik when they battle for a semifinal spot at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters on Friday.
Alcaraz is looking to bounce back from underwhelming results on the Sunshine Double while maintaining his slim lead over Jannik Sinner atop the ATP rankings. Simply reaching the quarterfinals in principality was not a walk in the park for the 22-year-old Spaniard, who scraped past Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 on Thursday. That was preceded by a much more convincing 6-1, 6-3 romp over Sebastian Baez.
Bublik also struggled in March, winning a total of one match across Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami. Unexpectedly, though, clay has become a favorable surface for the Kazakh over the past 12 months. Last year he reached the fourth round in Madrid, won a Challenger tournament in Turin, made a quarterfinal run at Roland Garros, and captured back-to-back ATP titles in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel. So far this week he has defeated Gael Monfils and Jiri Lehecka in straight sets.
It is worth noting, however, that Bublik’s 2025 French Open performance ended with a thud. After taking out Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper, the current world No. 11 got blown out by Jannik Sinner 6-1, 7-5, 6-0.
That does not automatically mean that he will get clobbered by Alcaraz, of course, but this is obviously a steep step up in competition for the underdog — even from Lehecka, who finished runner-up in Miami. A wakeup call against Etcheverry also might not be a bad thing for Alcaraz as he moves into the business end of the tournament. Expect the top seed to raise his level and advance without too much trouble.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2