Musetti or Tabilo to take Chengdu title?

Lorenzo Musetti is seeking his third main tour title after an impressive win over Brandon Nakashima in the semi-final while Alejandro Tabilo is seeking his maiden main tour title having reached the final as a qualifier.

• Top seed in Chengdu, currently ranked around world No. 9.

• Has been in good form this tournament: dominant semifinal win over Alexander Shevchenko (6-3, 6-1). He didn’t face a break point in that match.

• Last year he was runner-up in Chengdu. So he is familiar with the conditions and has motivation to win.

• However, he hasn’t won a tour-title yet in 2025. This final is a chance to break that.

• Entered as a qualifier, so he’s already played more matches, coming through the qualifying rounds.

• Had several tough wins: defeated No. 2 seed (Luciano Darderi), then Christopher O’Connell, and then Brandon Nakashima in the semis (6-4, 7-6(0)).

• He seems to be rediscovering form after a rough patch earlier in the year.

• Surface: outdoor hard courts. Musetti’s movement, variety (one-handed backhand, slices, spins), and hard serve are assets. Tabilo’s serve seems to have been serving him well this week especially under pressure.

• Momentum: Tabilo is on a hot streak, but Musetti has looked more consistent in recent matches, and hasn’t dropped serve nor been broken in some matches.

Given all that, here’s how I see it playing out:

• Prediction: John has gone for a three-set win for Lorenzo Musetti to secure his third main tour title.

• Scoreline guess: If Tabilo raises his level, like he did against Alexander Zverevat the US Open, it could be a very tight match as the Chilean seeks his maiden title on the main tour.

While I favour Musetti, there are scenarios where Tabilo could pull off a surprise:

• If Tabilo continues serving extremely well — lots of first-serve points, few double faults, and avoids break points — he could keep pressure on Musetti’s serve and make every game tight.

• If Musetti starts slowly, or gets frustrated (especially if Tabilo is making him run, using depth and pace), Tabilo might gain confidence.

• Small margins matter: unforced errors, early breaks, or performance in tiebreak/critical games might swing things.