Great generals throughout history used retreat as a strategy, choosing to take short-term defeats as part of a long-term strategy for victory. NBA teams have borrowed that tactic for years, choosing to sacrifice whole seasons for a shot at a better draft position. It’s called “tanking,” rather than “retreat,” but the philosophy is the same: lose now to win big later.
On today’s episode of “The Athletic Show,” we dive into NBA tanking as it again dominates discourse on the future of the league. The NBA draft, like all major sports, determines its order by using the previous season’s team records, but with an added wrinkle.
Rather than the worst record from the last season automatically drafting first, the 14 teams that do not make the playoffs enter the Draft Lottery. A drawing then decides the order of the first 14 picks. The three worst teams from the previous season all have a 14 percent chance of getting the top pick. The fourth-worst team has 12.5 percent odds, the fifth-worst has 10 percent odds, and the chances continue dropping down the line. So while having the worst record doesn’t guarantee a team the first pick, its odds get better the worse its record is. Given the influence star players have on team success in the NBA, being near the top of the first round is critical.
Thus, the incentive to lose is obvious. And despite the league enacting rules to prevent coaches from simply benching their best players, teams have found ways to ensure they lose as much as possible.
Between trading away top players, finding creative excuses to sit talent (vague injuries, “load management,” etc.), and choosing to play inexperienced or struggling players, franchises can quickly turn underwhelming seasons into disastrous ones in hopes of ending up with the best draft odds. While the sport has dealt with tanking for decades, modern teams are barely masking their tactics, leading NBA commissioner Adam Silver to address the problem more aggressively than ever before.
The Athletic writer John Hollinger joins the show to cover Silver’s recent pointed comments, as well as what strategies are being weighed to end tanking for good. We cover the proposals, such as ending the lottery, getting rid of the draft altogether, and even drafting draft picks, where teams pick one of the other 29 franchises, and wherever that team finishes determines where the picking team drafts.
We debate the options, and even game out what the league could look like once struggling franchises can no longer retreat to move forward.
Angel Reese walks the runway for Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show last October in New York City. (Mike Coppola / Getty Images for Victoria’s Secret)
In the WNBA, Angel Reese has done the opposite of retreat, building on her hardwood success to become a multi-hyphenate athlete. The 23-year-old has an expanding list of endorsements and investments, a signature sneaker and a growing IMDB page that includes Steph Curry’s new animated movie. Reese has quickly built the most lucrative portfolio in the league, and The Athletic writer Shakeia Taylor joins the show to explore how Reese’s talent, drive and social media savvy are shaping the new WNBA as the league and the players are locked in a labor battle.
In the non-professional world, March Madness is just a week away. College hoops writer Brendan Marks joins Zena to cover the best storylines in both the men’s and women’s brackets, and the biggest names to track in what promises to be a historically good draft class.
You can watch the full conversation on the latest episode of “The Athletic Show” on Fire TV and wherever you get your podcasts.