The NBA’s draft lottery system continues to incentivize losing despite previous reforms intended to flatten the odds, with the league issuing fines to teams including the Utah Jazz for game management decisions during the 2025-26 season.
The current draft structure awards the highest probability of a top pick to the teams with the worst records. While the 2019 lottery reform reduced the advantage held by the bottom three teams — flattening their odds to 14% each — the system still provides a measurable benefit to losing, particularly for teams outside playoff contention in the second half of the season.
The result is a recurring pattern in which teams with eliminated or diminished playoff prospects make roster and rotation decisions that prioritize draft positioning over on-court competitiveness.
How the NBA draft structure incentivizes tanking
The draft was designed to distribute incoming talent across the league by giving weaker teams earlier selections. In practice, the system creates a scenario in which teams with losing records face a strategic choice: compete for marginal wins or accept losses that improve their lottery odds and access to higher-rated prospects.
This dynamic is most visible in the final third of the regular season, when teams eliminated from playoff contention begin resting healthy veterans, increasing minutes for developmental players, and making trades that reduce short-term competitiveness in exchange for future assets.
Proposed reforms to the NBA draft lottery
Multiple reform proposals have been discussed, including further flattening lottery odds, introducing a play-in tournament for draft positioning, or restructuring incentives so that non-playoff teams are rewarded for winning rather than losing. Each proposal carries potential unintended consequences, including the creation of new strategic loopholes to ensure they effectively address the root causes of tanking.
Impact of tanking on NBA viewership and fan engagement
Tanking affects both in-arena attendance and broadcast viewership for teams in losing positions. Games involving teams perceived to be tanking draw lower engagement from casual viewers, even if committed fan bases accept short-term losing as part of a long-term rebuild.
For teams, the strategic decision to prioritize draft capital over current-season wins can also affect player development, locker room dynamics, and the ability to attract free agents who prefer competitive environments.
NBA’s next steps on tanking enforcement and reform
Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated that the league is considering escalating penalties beyond fines, including the potential removal of draft picks from teams found to be deliberately underperforming. The challenge for the league office remains distinguishing between teams that are genuinely rebuilding with limited rosters and those making calculated decisions to lose for draft advantage.
Any structural changes to the lottery or incentive system would require approval from the league’s Board of Governors and would need to balance competitive integrity with the draft’s original purpose of talent redistribution.