NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Can Duke, UConn lose their No. 1 seeds?

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

In his top 25 this week, CJ Moore talked Arizona and Michigan, a top tier all its own, and the prospect of “one of the most epic national title games ever.”

There are teams that can beat both, especially in a tournament that makes most things possible. But on Selection Sunday — less than five weeks away! — half the field will share a sigh of relief upon landing in regions other than those topped by the Wildcats and Wolverines. Everyone else will face the reality of a historically efficient team blocking a dream run to Indianapolis and the Final Four. (And no, Arizona’s first loss, Monday at Kansas, does not change that.)

Two teams can ensure clearer paths, the two who sew up the other two No. 1 seeds. Duke and Connecticut have been entrenched on the top line for most of the season, but both lost over the weekend to open the door a bit more for would-be leapfroggers.

Both were high-quality losses in fantastic games, UConn against St. John’s in Madison Square Garden and Duke at rival North Carolina. These aren’t basketball crimes. But had Illinois won at Michigan State on Saturday instead of losing in overtime, Brad Underwood’s team would have been in a splitting-hairs contest with Dan Hurley’s Huskies — staying one spot behind because these teams played and UConn won.

Metrics and opportunity give Illinois and Houston, in particular, paths to the top line. The Big Ten and Big 12 occupy nine of the top 12 spots on the true seeding list. So the conference tournaments should be rich with resume builders, and in the meantime, Houston has games against three of the top 12. Iowa State has three as well. Illinois has just one, but it’s a big one — home against Michigan on Feb. 27.

KenPom projects UConn to win the rest of its games in a disappointing Big East, though a trip to Villanova and the St. John’s rematch bring peril. KenPom projects the same for Duke on the rest of its conference schedule, but the Blue Devils also have a game against Michigan, Feb. 21 in Washington, D.C. A strong showing in a close loss might cement Duke as a No. 1 seed. A win would leave zero doubt.

The guess here, the way things are trending, is that Houston ends up grabbing the last No. 1 seed from UConn.

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