NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: The fight for a No. 3 seed is intense, and worthwhile

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the run-up to the men’s & women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

Michigan looked like the best team again with that romp at Illinois, until Duke toyed with Virginia, until Arizona humbled Kansas, until Florida made Arkansas look like Arkansas-Pine Bluff. And you can’t leave out a UConn team that spent last week eliciting one of the worst second halves of offensive basketball in this century or any other out of St. John’s, then grinding one out against Seton Hall.

The first three teams listed are going to be No. 1 seeds, and all still have the No. 1 overall seed within reach. Florida has emerged as a serious contender for the fourth No. 1 seed, which this week again belongs to UConn. The Huskies’ 4-point win over the Gators in December is doing work. For now.

While that race and the activity around the bubble get the most attention — for much more on the latter, check out Jim Root’s Bubble Watch — the 3-line is especially interesting as we enter the final week of the regular season. It’s always preferred to be a No. 3 seed over a No. 4 seed because it means not having to face a No. 1 seed until the Regional Final. This year, it’s more like desperately urgent than preferred.

A No. 2 seed is even better, of course, but the 3-line is just fine. An extra round to let someone else shock one of these monsters can make all the difference. And this is the new Big Ten competition, now that Michigan has dusted everyone to win the regular-season title. The full seeding list this week has four Big Ten teams in a row.

No. 8 overall (and the last No. 2 seed) Nebraska: No. 5 Wins Above Bubble, No. 16 KPI, No. 5 Strength of Record, No. 15 BPI, No. 11 KenPom, No. 12 Torvik, No. 12 NET, 12-4 vs. Quads 1 and 2, 10-2 road/neutral, no bad losses, best three wins at Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin, 2-2 vs. the other three Big Ten teams in question.

No. 9 overall (and the first No. 3 seed) Michigan State: No. 9 Wins Above Bubble, No. 9 KPI, No. 7 Strength of Record, No. 12 BPI, No. 9 KenPom, No. 11 Torvik, No. 11 NET, 15-5 vs. Quads 1 and 2, 10-3 road/neutral, bad loss at Minnesota, best three wins at Purdue, Illinois, North Carolina (neutral), 2-1 vs. the other three Big Ten teams in question.

No. 10 overall Illinois: No. 12 Wins Above Bubble, No. 14 KPI, No. 15 Strength of Record, No. 6 BPI, No. 5 KenPom, No. 6 Torvik, No. 5 NET, 14-7 vs. Quads 1 and 2, 9-4 road/neutral, no bad losses, best three wins at Nebraska, at Purdue, Texas Tech, 2-2 vs. the other three Big Ten teams in question.

No. 11 overall Purdue: No. 10 Wins Above Bubble, No. 11 KPI, No. 16 Strength of Record, No. 9 BPI, No. 8 KenPom, No. 7 Torvik, No. 9 NET, 12-7 vs. Quads 1 and 2, 10-3 road/neutral, no bad losses, best three wins at Nebraska, at Alabama, Texas Tech (neutral), 1-2 vs. the other three Big Ten teams in question.

The predictive metrics still love Illinois and Purdue, though they’ve combined to lose five of six games. The Boilermakers have dropped three of four and have helped the Big Ten bubble this season with losses to rival Indiana, UCLA and Ohio State. Illinois also fell in a heartbreaker to the Bruins. They’ve also both won in the raucous arena of the team that sits at the front of the line (though Nebraska won at Illinois as well).

It’s incredibly close. No. 2 seeds Houston and Iowa State are close enough to be dragged down. Texas Tech, which has defied all JT Toppin-related declarations of doom, holds the last No. 3 seed. Kansas and Alabama are next, and both have ample opportunity ahead to move up a line. Alabama may need to take down Florida in the SEC tournament to get enough of a boost.

That’s nine teams for seven coveted spots and enough basketball ahead until March 15 that the shuffle from here to there could be dramatic.

 

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