Welcome to Week 13 of our NFL Best Bets. Thanksgiving is always a good time to reflect on the things and people we are grateful for, but many people don’t know it is also the holiday where sports betting began. The first Thanksgiving in 1621 opened with an over under on how many slices of pie Governor Bradford would put away. Early money hit the over like it was free. Squanto introduced the same game parlay by combining “finish the meal,” “avoid talking about winter,” and “get out of cleaning anything afterward.” Two legs cashed, the last one missed badly. William Brewster followed with a seventeen-minute blessing that took down the under in record time and wiped out half the table’s tickets. Then came the disputed “first spillage” ruling, when the cider hit the ground but was technically knocked over by a child, not an adult, grading it as a push and nearly starting a settlement-wide argument. By the end of the night, someone placed a futures bet on whether Americans would still be arguing at a dinner table four centuries later.
But that’s enough of the history lesson. Last week, the Best Bets went 2-1, but if you follow our NFL Picks page, you’ll see I was 10-1 ATS and 20-6 over the last two weeks. Cashing those tickets just in time for Christmas!
One thing I like to keep an eye on is a team’s record against the spread and their ATS plus/minus, which shows how far above or below the number they land on average. The Seahawks are sitting at 8-3 ATS with a +7.1 margin, giving them roughly a touchdown of breathing room most weeks. They’re not just winning, they’re beating the lines consistently, which makes them worth riding until the market adjusts. Indianapolis is another strong team, covering 66.7% of the time with a +6.8 ATS plus/minus. On the other side, Las Vegas is around 36 percent ATS with a -7.2 margin, and New Orleans and Baltimore sit right behind them at -5 and -4.9. The market keeps propping those teams up, but betting on them is closer to a donation than a strategy.
NFL BEST BETS
LA Rams at Carolina Panthers
The number feels a little inflated. Look-ahead lines had this closer to Rams -9.5, and moving it to -10.5 looks more like the market adding extra weight to the favorite than anything that actually changed on the field. Getting +10.5 at home gives Carolina enough room to be flawed and still stay inside the spread. Bryce Young has already shown he has a ceiling with that 448-yard, three-touchdown game, and while you can’t bank on that, having that level in his range is important to consider. The Rams are the better team, no question, but they are flying cross-country and dealing with injuries across the roster. Carolina has also shown they can make teams work when the matchups break right, especially at home. My model has this Rams -9.5, so taking +10.5 is a good number. You’re not asking Carolina to win this game or even keep it to one score. I think they will be able to hang around long enough to stay competitive.
Pick: Panthers +10.5
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
Minnesota is walking into this game with one of the worst quarterback situations of the week. J.J. McCarthy is still in concussion protocol, leaving undrafted rookie Max Brosmer to face an aggressive Seattle pass rush. That is a brutal spot for any young quarterback, much less one with almost no NFL reps.
Seattle comes in at 8-3 and has been playing like a complete team. Their defense ranks near the top of the league in pressure and disruption, and now they get a banged-up offensive line protecting a rookie. Sustaining drives with that setup is difficult anywhere, but in Seattle it can turn into a long day fast. Seattle is also in the middle of a playoff push and should be fully locked in. My model makes this closer to Seattle -12, so -10.5 feels a little soft given Minnesota’s situation.
A strong home team with momentum facing a 4-7 squad starting a rookie behind an injured line is a classic blowout recipe. If Seattle shows up with even a B-plus effort, they should clear this number easily.
Pick: Seahawks -10.5
Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders
Denver is a team that wins with defense and field position more than explosive offense. Their style keeps games close, not comfortable, and that makes covering a 6.5 spread on the road tough. Washington has actually been better at home than their record shows, moving the ball more efficiently and avoiding the early mistakes that bury them on the road. They can trade possessions with the Broncos, and that alone keeps this inside a reasonable range. Denver’s offense has also been streaky, and when they stall, they tend to stall for entire quarters.
The Commanders’ defense has been opportunistic lately and has shown it can generate turnovers. One of two big plays on defense will be enough to swing momentum in their favor. Denver is also traveling east for an early kickoff, which has historically worked against West teams. With the Bronco’s conservative offense and the travel angle, +6.5 is a strong value.
Pick: Commanders +6.5