NFL Best Bets
It’s December, which means it’s officially Whamageddon season. If you’re not familiar, the rules are simple. From December 1 until Christmas, you try to go as long as possible without hearing the original version of Last Christmas by Wham. Covers don’t count. Accidental exposure in a Walgreens absolutely does. One verse or one chorus, and you’re out.
I have my own NFL version of it. If you hear any announcer say the phrase “establish the run” during the game, you lose. Doesn’t matter who says it or what game you’re watching. The moment those words hit your ears, your streak is over. Last year, I made it until December 8th.
Speaking of streaks, we’re on a hot one after going 3-0 in last week’s Best Bets. I make these picks on Friday, but getting in early is where you can find an edge. If you’re betting right before kickoff, you’re playing into the sharpest, most efficient version of the line. By then the market has baked in injuries, weather, public money, and sharp movement. It’s hard to win long-term by doing that. Making bets early and using multiple sportsbooks to shop for the best number is how you build closing line value over time.
NFL BEST BETS
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
There are a few things that point to the Jets being the right side here. First, they have been one of the better ATS teams in the league this season. They are 7-4-1 against the spread, and when they are underdogs of three or more points, they are 6-1-1. Miami has been the opposite. Any time they have been favored by three or more this season, they have failed to cover.
The Jets have won two of the last three home meetings in this rivalry, and divisional home underdogs tend to outperform expectations historically. Add in the weather factor and it gets more interesting. Tua has struggled in cold conditions, going 0-8 in games below 45 degrees in his career.
The Jets defense matches up well here. They rank in the top ten against the pass, and since Tua leads the league in interceptions with 14, this could finally be the week the Jets’ secondary gets on the board. Offensively, New York has been showing signs of life. Tyrod Taylor has kept them competitive in back-to-back games, including a game-winning drive last week. Receiver Adonai Mitchell broke out with over 100 yards and a touchdown, and Breece Hall has a great matchup against a Miami run defense that sits near the bottom of the league.
This feels like the definition of a trap spot. Miami is on a three-game winning streak, the public sees momentum, and the line stays at three. I’m taking the Jets.
Pick: Jets +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Anytime these two play, the records almost stop mattering. Steelers-Ravens games are usually close, slow, and physical. Baltimore has had a hard time covering numbers this season. They’re 4-8 ATS and just 1-4 in their last five home games against the spread. When they’ve been favored by six or more, they’ve only covered twice in five tries. The market keeps expecting them to win comfortably, and they keep landing short of expectations. Pittsburgh hasn’t been amazing ATS either, but they’re competitive as underdogs. They already have two outright wins in that spot this season, and they tend to play their best football in the division.
Lamar Jackson is playing through multiple injuries, and when his mobility takes a hit, the Ravens offense becomes more predictable. Pittsburgh should be able to create pressure without letting Jackson escape, which is the blueprint to win against Baltimore.
On offense, Pittsburgh doesn’t need to be explosive to stay inside the number. Jaylen Warren gives them a way to punish blitzes and shorten the game. DK Metcalf forces attention downfield, even if he’s not putting up monster numbers.
Baltimore turns the ball over more at home than on the road, they score six fewer points at home, and their defense is banged up at multiple levels. Nine of the last 10 matchups between these two have gone under the total. A low-scoring, divisional game works in the Steelers’ favor. I think they will keep it close to the end.
Pick: Steelers +6
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
This one is about the number and the spot. Atlanta has been much better at home, and even when they’ve lost, they’ve stayed competitive. Four of their last five losses have been by six points or fewer, so getting a full touchdown in their own stadium has value.
Seattle has been solid overall, but they haven’t carried that same consistency on the road. They’re 2-4 against the spread away from home and their scoring dips when they travel.
I think the Falcons should keep this one close. Their pass defense ranks twelfth in the league, and A.J. Terrell has played well enough to make Seattle work for explosive plays. On offense, Bijan Robinson gets a favorable matchup against a bottom-tier run defense, and Kirk Cousins has provided stability as the starter. Atlanta just needs enough sustained drives to keep this from getting away.
Pick: Falcons +7