NFL Christmas Week 17
The NFL’s Christmas Day slate begins with a matchup that neither fanbase expected to see this deep into December without playoff implications. The Dallas Cowboys travel to Northwest Stadium to face the Washington Commanders on Thursday afternoon, and while both teams have been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, there’s still plenty to play for in this NFC East rivalry.
Dallas enters at 6-8-1, having seen their season unravel after a promising start under new head coach Brian Schottenheimer. The Cowboys were officially eliminated from playoff contention following their 34-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 16, a defeat that highlighted the team’s defensive struggles that have plagued them all season. Washington sits at 4-11, enduring one of the franchise’s most difficult seasons in recent memory. The Commanders have lost eight straight games, including a 29-18 defeat to division-rival Philadelphia on Saturday, and announced earlier this week that rookie sensation Jayden Daniels would be shut down for the remainder of the season due to multiple injuries.
What Are The Odds?
As it stands, the Dallas Cowboys are 8.5-point favorites over the Commanders. The total points for this game is set at 50.5, but that line seems high considering Washington is starting their third-string quarterback. I could see the line change before the start of the game. Some will argue there is a lack of motivation among many of these players, but this is a Christmas game, and the coaching staff will encourage the team to play hard at home in front of their fans. This is the last home game of the year for the Commanders, and after a 4-11 season, expect contract-year players looking to have an extra step in hopes of new deals. If you’re considering wagering on this game, make sure you research which sportsbooks are available in your area. Also, make sure to take advantage of any first-time signup offers. Whether it’s a FreeCryptoBonus, or deposit offers, the best deal you’ll ever get is on the first time sign up.
Head-to-Head Matchup
The recent history between these division rivals heavily favors Dallas. The Cowboys demolished Washington 44-22 in Week 7 at AT&T Stadium, a performance that saw quarterback Dak Prescott and the offense explode while the defense forced critical turnovers. That victory extended Dallas’s dominance in this series, having won four of the last five meetings while outscoring the Commanders by 89 points over that span. The Cowboys present a nightmare matchup for Commanders QB Josh Johnson’s first start in four years.
Dallas’s offensive firepower remains elite despite the disappointing season. Prescott has thrown for 4,175 yards and 28 touchdowns, ranking second in the NFL in passing yards and third in touchdown passes. The veteran quarterback has developed tremendous chemistry with the duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, forming one of the league’s most dangerous receiving combinations. Lamb eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for a fifth consecutive season in Week 16, while Pickens has posted career highs across the board with 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns through 12 games since arriving via trade from Pittsburgh in May.
The Cowboys’ rushing attack has been revitalized by running back Javonte Williams, who signed with Dallas in the offseason after four seasons with Denver. Williams has exceeded expectations with 1,147 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, though he’s been dealing with a neck injury that limited him in practice this week. Even if Williams plays on a reduced snap count, backup Malik Davis has shown he can handle an increased workload.
Washington’s offense faces catastrophic circumstances. Josh Johnson threw just five passes in Week 16 injury relief duty against Philadelphia, doing little and tossing an interception. The veteran hasn’t taken meaningful snaps in years. While offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury praised Johnson’s ability to grasp concepts due to his experience across multiple systems quickly, there’s no escaping the reality that the Commanders are starting a 39-year-old third-stringer who hasn’t won a game as a starter since 2018. Washington signed Jeff Driskel off Arizona’s practice squad to serve as the backup, with Sam Hartman elevated as the emergency third quarterback.
The chess match between first-year Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer and Commanders coach Dan Quinn adds intrigue. Schottenheimer has orchestrated an offense that ranks first in passing yards per game at 274.3, and facing a third-string quarterback should allow defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to dial up pressure packages without fear of getting burned deep. Quinn finds himself in an impossible situation, trying to coax competent quarterback play from a 39-year-old who hasn’t started in four years while his offensive line deals with injuries, including the likely absence of left tackle Laremy Tunsil due to an oblique injury.
Several key players could swing this game. For Dallas, tight end Jake Ferguson has been Prescott’s security blanket all season with a career-high 78 receptions. His ability to work the middle of the field should produce consistent gains. The Cowboys need to establish Williams early if he’s healthy, as his powerful running style has punished defenses all season. Defensively, creating turnovers will be paramount, and Johnson’s career 17 interceptions against just 13 touchdowns suggest the Cowboys should have opportunities if they bring pressure.
Washington needs a monumental performance from their running game to have any chance. If they can establish the ground attack and control time of possession, it keeps Prescott on the sideline and gives Johnson manageable third-down situations. Defensively, linebacker Bobby Wagner remains a bright spot, leading the team in tackles, and Washington’s best hope is generating pressure up front to rattle Prescott and force him into quick decisions.
For Dallas to secure victory, they must exploit Washington’s quarterback situation mercilessly. Prescott should pick apart the Commanders’ secondary, and the Cowboys’ pass rush needs to make Johnson uncomfortable in the pocket. Getting ahead early forces Washington into obvious passing situations where Johnson’s inexperience will be magnified. Defensively, Dallas must generate at least three turnovers against a quarterback making his first start in four years.
Washington’s path to victory requires nothing short of a miracle. Johnson must protect the football above all else, leaning heavily on short, safe throws that keep the chains moving. The Commanders need to dominate time of possession, potentially running the ball 35-40 times to keep this game in the 20s scorewise. Defensively, Washington needs to force turnovers and create short fields, because asking Johnson to lead long touchdown drives against a team desperate for a win is unrealistic.
The Cowboys should dominate this game given the quarterback disparity. Dallas has too many weapons, and facing a 39-year-old third-stringer on a short week presents a golden opportunity for the defense to regain confidence. Johnson’s rust and Washington’s depleted offensive line spell disaster for the Commanders. While divisional games can produce surprises, the gap between these quarterbacks is simply too vast.
Predictions
Prescott will have a field day throwing for over 300 yards and four touchdowns, with both Pickens and Lamb eclipsing 100 yards. Williams grinds out 70 to 80 rushing yards despite the neck issue. For Washington, Johnson completes just 55 percent of his passes and throws two interceptions before giving way to Driskel in garbage time.
Final Prediction: Cowboys 38, Commanders 13