Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are slightly favored against the New England Patriots in Week 16. Scott Taetsch / Getty Images
Nearly every game in Week 16 of the NFL regular season has downstream effects for some team’s playoff ambitions. How will desperation mode and the final jockeying for postseason position impact how each team plays? That’s what we’re projecting here.
(Check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to see your team’s chances.)
I have developed an NFL Projection Model that takes in play-by-play data to map out potential game outcomes for each team in the NFL. These projections are adjusted for opponent and garbage time before spitting out an expected points-per-game for the offense and defense.
From there, I’m able to plug these values into the model and get an expected spread and total for each game of the NFL season. Below, you’ll find those projections compared against the odds on BetMGM.
This week, the model is picking the over for Rams-Seahawks, the Patriots to cover at the Ravens, the Steelers to cover at the Lions (plus the under) and the Dolphins to cover vs. the Bengals (plus the over). See all of the comparisons below.