Nature abhors a vacuum. A coach is fired or resigns, leaving behind a gaping possibility, and the rumor mill is instantly here to fill the content mill with churning takes — and odds. As soon as the University of North Carolina split from Hubert Davis as its men’s basketball coach after exiting in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, markets were available to put money on who would fill that vacancy.
No, actually, let’s correct that: The markets were up before the news of the split was public. On Kalshi, “North Carolina Basketball – Next Head Coach” went live around 1 a.m. ET on Monday, March 23, four days after UNC’s upset loss to VCU.
By 9 a.m. that morning — still before the announcement — Chicago Bulls coach Billy Donovan and University of Arizona men’s basketball coach Tommy Lloyd had both surged as early favorites. Donovan jumped to a nearly 50-50 favorite by late Tuesday. By the time the news was official on Tuesday evening, the Bulls coach had come back down to around a 22 percent probability, with Lloyd at about 13 percent.
Since then, the market has fluctuated a good bit, with Lloyd overtaking the top probability on Wednesday evening, and Donovan retaking the favored spot on Thursday morning. (Donovan has responded that he is concentrating on the Bulls.)
As of this writing, Donovan is a 30 percent favorite on Kalshi, with Lloyd behind at 25 percent. The next-closest candidate is Vanderbilt coach Mark Byington at 10 percent.
Below that: Iowa State’s T. J. Otzelberger (8 percent), Alabama’s Nate Oats (7 percent), Michigan’s Dusty May (5 percent) and Iowa’s Ben McCollum (5 percent). The remaining listed potential coaches are all below 3 percent, with varying level of realism and credibility: Texas Tech’s Grant McCasland, Gonzaga’s Mark Few, Florida’s Todd Golden, Texas’ Sean Miller, St. John’s’ Rick Pitino, Baylor’s Scott Drew and St. Louis’ Josh Schertz.
The Athletic’s Brendan Marks was quick with a story on who he believes the contenders are, and we asked him to expand on why the markets like these top two favorites.
“North Carolina doesn’t have a ‘top’ candidate so much as it has a few favorites, but Tommy Lloyd and Billy Donovan are both firmly in that upper tier,” Marks said. “Lloyd checks every box for modern success — and comes from the Mark Few tree, which UNC backers appreciate given Few’s longtime friendship with former North Carolina coach Roy Williams — while Donovan’s NBA cache will undoubtedly improve the team’s recruiting and on-court product.
“Donovan probably had the lead in prediction markets because he’s the flashier name nationwide, especially to people more familiar with the NBA, but the reality is, UNC is going to do everything in its power to lure Lloyd away from the desert. As more reporting trickles out about that, including from The Athletic, I’d expect those two to be neck-and-neck for the foreseeable future.”
We’re talking about Kalshi because prediction markets are open to more speculative topics than their highly regulated cousins, sportsbooks, which are often precluded, or even reluctant, from offering markets that are so vulnerable to insider information.
Traditional sportsbooks don’t usually offer odds on speculative storylines or on what group chats are discussing, such as who will be a team’s next coach or where a player will be traded, whereas prediction markets tend to target exactly those topics. Whether they are accurate is more of an open question. (And also opens up a philosophical debate of the meaning of “accurate,” i.e., they are “accurate” about what people think is going to happen, but may not be accurate on the final result.)
The Athletic’s Dan Santaromita tracked the college football coaching carousel on prediction markets and concluded: “In essence, you can now bet on whether or not you believe a message board rumor.”
Hypothetically, the odds on a sportsbook would be similar to those on prediction markets, since oddsmakers are deeply intertwined in the business and data of sports. Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at Borgata, sent hypothetical odds our way:
- Billy Donovan +165
- Tommy Lloyd +200
- T.J. Otzelberger +450
- Brad Stevens +750
“Billy Donovan seems to be at the top of the list from what we’re hearing,” Gable said. “He’s been at the NBA level since 2015, but has won two national titles while coaching Florida. The Bulls will miss the playoffs, and Donovan may finally be willing to return to the college game.”
Athletic contributor and betting analyst Doug Kezirian told us, “Billy Donovan opened around +800 in prediction markets, and I agree with the move. He is now the rightful Kalshi favorite at +217. I do not see Tommy Lloyd, Nate Oats, Dusty May or T.J. Otzelberger as the next hire, and there’s no way I’d consider Todd Golden.
“To me, the best bets would be Ben McCollum (+1772) and Scott Drew (+4572), based on the odds.”