College football conference championship weekend is here, and the action begins on Friday, December 5 with four title games. Among them is the American Athletic Conference Championship between the 11-1 North Texas Mean Green and the 10-2 Tulane Green Wave. The stakes are as high as they can be for this one, as the winner is all but guaranteed a seat at the 12-team College Football Playoff.
Let’s get into my favorite picks for the AAC Championship.
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave odds
Money line: North Texas -136 / Tulane +116
Spread: North Texas -2.5 (-110) / Tulane +2.5 (-110)
Total: Over 66.5 (-110) / Under 66.5 (-110)
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave best bet #1: North Texas -2.5 (-110)
Over the last five weeks, North Texas has been one of the most electric offenses in the sport. The Mean Green sit atop the FBS landscape in PPA per play since Week 10, rank among the top five teams in turnover margin, and typically finish their quality drives with points more often than not given their country-leading 5.2 points per quality drive and nation’s best 56 red-zone touchdowns this season. All of these traits makes North Texas much more trustworthy offensively than Tulane, as the Green Wave aren’t as efficient down-to-down — nor are they nearly as good as the Mean Green in the red zone (as shown by their 101st ranking out of 136 FBS teams in red-zone touchdown rate).
Considering both defenses leave much to be desired (sitting outside the top 50 in scoring, total defense, and PPA per play), siding with the more reliable offense is the move in the AAC Championship — especially when you consider that North Texas has the better offensive line and quarterback play, while being better against the spread. In fact, UNT QB Drew Mestemaker has double the amount of big-time throws as Tulane QB Joey Retzlaff, as well as half the amount of turnover-worthy plays — of which Retzlaff had three alone last week against Charlotte of all teams. The Mean Green are 10-2 ATS this season, including a perfect 4-0 ATS as road favorites in AAC play, and they have wider margins of victory than almost every single common opponent when compared to Tulane’s schedule. Meanwhile, Tulane is 2-4 ATS in its last six outings.
North Texas Mean Green vs. Tulane Green Wave best bet #2: Wyatt Young Over 102.5 receiving yards (-115)
The weakest part of Tulane’s defense is its secondary. The Green Wave allow almost 252 passing yards per game, which ranks 119th nationally, and have surrendered 20 passing touchdowns this year (92nd). Furthermore, they sit outside the 76th in PPA per pass and 109th in passing success rate allowed this season, and those numbers are even worse over the last five weeks. That’s not exactly where you want to be defensively when playing against such an electric passing attack like North Texas.
UNT WR Wyatt Young should benefit greatly from lining up opposite of Tulane’s leaky secondary. Young is the best-rated wide receiver in the country per PFF’s grading, averages just under 20 yards per reception, and is third nationally in receiving yards this season despite having as many as 40 fewer receptions than UConn’s Skyler Bell and 26 fewer receptions than San Jose State’s Danny Scudero — the only two receivers above Young in terms of receiving yards. He has corralled at least seven receptions — and as many as 12 — in six of his last seven games, and has accumulated at least 102 yards in five of them (all since Week 8). Given the matchup and his usage in the offense, Young should have a massive day.