Offer sheets and the Toronto Maple Leafs

There are still six weeks remaining until NHL free agency makes its underwhelming impact on Canada Day festivities. With a lacklustre unrestricted free agency class, overpayments for middle-of-the-road players are the most likely scenario.

The NHL could go a different route this year and explore offer sheets for restricted free agents. It has been a growing trend thanks to the Canadiens/Hurricanes and the Blues/Oilers, but never has there been a greater sense of urgency to use it than this year, where talent will be in such short supply.

(If contract length is over 5 years, the total value of the contract will be divided by 5 to determine the compensation level. The picks used most be the ones originally assigned to the offer sheeting team in the draft, i.e. the Leafs cannot use the 2027 1st round pick from the Colorado Avalanche.)

The Maple Leafs as buyers

There are two ranges on here that apply to John Chayka & Co. The Maple Leafs are able to shop the under $1,575,970 range that doesn’t require compensation. The Maple Leafs also hold their own second-round pick in 2027, which enables them to sign players in the $2,387,833-$4,775,666 range. It is unlikely that the Bruins or Flyers will trade the Maple Leafs’ first-round picks back to them, which prevents going bigger.

The Maple Leafs might be priced out of the top tier of RFAs, but players like Cole Perfetti, Braden Schneider, and Kirby Dach might be worth the risk for a second-round pick.

Taking chances on a player like Emil Andrae with a higher term at $1,575,970 per season might also be something that the Flyers would be reluctant to match.

The Maple Leafs as a target

Matias Maccelli and Nick Robertson are unlikely to be priority targets for offer sheets, but are worth noting as restricted free agents who are also most likely to fall into the compensation range for a second-round pick. In Maccelli’s case, the Maple Leafs would be wise to match, but with Nick Robertson, Toronto would likely take the pick with a smile on its face. Only if it were a third-round pick would the idea of retaining Robertson take on some appeal.

The remaining RFAs (William Villeneuve, Ryan Tverberg, Henry Thrun, Jacob Quillan, Braeden Kressler, Slava Peksa, Roni Hirvonen, Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, and John Prokop) would all likely fall under the compensation threshold, but none of them would likely be priority signings for the Leafs anyway, and the benefit of having a contract space back would suit the Leafs just fine.

The greater interest from the Maple Leafs side of things should be the potential to sign RFAs. John Chayka has made his name by doing things differently from most General Managers, so this might be the right time to try something unorthodox.