In the final College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup on New Year’s Day, familiar SEC foes in the Ole Miss Rebels and the Georgia Bulldogs will collide in the Sugar Bowl. These teams met once this season already, and the Rebels carried a 35-26 lead into the fourth quarter before the Bulldogs rattled off 17 unanswered points to win by eight. This time around, the Rebels aim for a different result against the SEC champions when the ball flies at 8:00 pm ET on ESPN.
Here are my favorite bets for Ole Miss vs. Georgia.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs odds
Money line: Ole Miss +200 / Georgia -245
Spread: Ole Miss +6 (-105) / Georgia -6 (-115)
Total: Over 55.5 (-110) / Under 55.5 (-110)
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs best bet #1: Georgia -6 (-115)
I’ll start by saying this is not a line that you need to rush to bet pregame, as you may get a better number live. Georgia has made a habit of starting slow against power conference opponents, and with a long layoff following the SEC Championship, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that again here — and I even bet Ole Miss 1Q +3.5 already because of it. However, I believe Georgia head coach Kirby Smart is one of — if not the best — in-game adjuster in the sport, which allows the Bulldogs to run away from opponents in the second half much like they did in Athens against the Rebels earlier this year.
The Lane Kiffin drama surrounding Ole Miss wasn’t a factor when playing at home against Tulane, but Kiffin’s absence could be magnified in this game. It’s hard to trust a group of coordinators with minimal to no head-coaching experience in any postseason game, much less a College Football Playoff game against Smart and the Dawgs. While I expect Ole Miss to have a solid first quarter via its early-game script, once Georgia settles in the Bulldogs should be able to pull away from the Rebels behind their strong rushing attack and better defense. Ole Miss finished the regular season 129th in PPA per rush and 94th in rushing success rate allowed, while surrendering 4.26 yards per attempt — which ranks 72nd. That’s not very settling against a backfield as strong as Georgia’s. In comparison, the Bulldogs come into this game with top-20 marks in all three of the aforementioned metrics along with top-35 marks on early-downs PPA and success rate allowed since Week 9. They back that up with a secondary that ranks top 20 in PPA per pass and passing downs PPA allowed since the end of October in addition to a more efficient red-zone unit on both sides of the ball. Look for the Dawgs to pull away late and cover this number.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Bulldogs best player prop bet: Nate Frazier Over 58.5 rushing yards (-114)
In all of Georgia’s biggest games down the stretch, Nate Frazier has been relied upon to carry the load in the run game. The sophomore running back has tallied 861 yards this season on 5.4 yards per attempt, and he has been given at least 12 attempts in each of the seven games since the controversial win at Auburn in early October. Furthermore, he has surpassed this number in four of Georgia’s last six games against power conference opponents.
Ole Miss’ run defense is the weakest part of the stop unit, as previously mentioned, and the Rebels have surrendered more than 60 yards to their opposition’s lead rusher in almost every game this year. Most recently, Ole Miss allowed Tulane’s Jamauri McClure to rush for 84 yards, while Mississippi State’s Fluff Bothwell had 80 and Florida’s Jaden Baugh had 61. Look for Frazier to continue that trend.
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