Profile stage 7: Nice – Auron
Stage 7: Nice – Auron, 138.7 kilometers
Stage 7 could be called the queen stage, but it is not as simple as that. Last year the peloton had a stage finishing in Auron, but it didn’t prove to be a meaningful challenge for the overall classification. Whereas the race typically features a high mountain stage; this time around this is considered the toughest of them all.
However the stage is short, having only 138 kilometers on the menu out from Nice, with two categorized climbs in the opening kilometers. Most of the day then is flat. Now surely, the riders go up from 150 to 1100 meters of altitude up to the base of the climb to Auron, which isn’t pan-flat, but unless the pace is seriously pushed, it’s not terrain that will make for very fatiguing racing – mostly because the stage is also short.
The final climb is 7.4 kilometers long at 7%, enough terrain to make some differences, but nothing overly dramatic as such a climb will be tackled at over 25Km/h; and at speeds where slipstreaming matters. It is a climb where the pure climbers may struggle to make the difference against the more explosive riders, but it will nevertheless be important for the overall classification.
The Favourites
There is a big if, which is the heavy snowfall in the area, very very heavy, and negative temperatures at the top, as low as -7Cº during the night in Auron. Safe to say that at the time of writing this, my belief the stage will go through in the first place will be low.
But let’s assume it will, it is a mostly flat stage where nothing is expected to happen before the final climb, the riders just have to withstand the cold in the lead-up to the final ascent whilst the breakaway can succeed like last year on this ascent where it was Michael Storer who won. Ordinarily, this climb would not see many differences because it is not steep enough over 7 kilometers, at this point in time the speeds are so high that slipstreaming does actually become very important.
Not much to predict on that side honestly, because if it goes down to a peloton fight Vingegaard will win, and the GC won’t change much either because of the massive gaps behind. Kévin Vauquelin will certainly try to attack Georg Steinhauser if he can to try and jump onto the podium, whilst Lenny Martínez is the only other rider who seems to have the legs to attack and already did very good on this climb last year. Harold Tejada and Valentin Paret-Peintre can do well as they have in previous days, and having GC freedom at the same time.
The question is whether a breakaway can succeed or not. Aleksandr Vlasov, Igor Arrieta, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda, Nicolas Prodhomme and Andreas Leknessund are riders who can potentially succeed from the front if they find themselves there.
Prediction Paris-Nice 2026 stage 7:
*** Jonas Vingegaard, Nicolas Prodhomme
** Lenny Martínez, Kévin Vauquelin, Aleksandr Vlasov, Jefferson Alveiro Cepeda
* Harold Tejada, Valentin Paret-Peintre, Daniel Martínez, Georg Steinhauser, Ion Izagirre, Igor Arrieta, Andreas Leknessund
Pick: Nicolas Prodhomme
How: Breakaway win
Original: Rúben Silva