The qualifying round of the 2026 Winter Olympics is over, and we have our quarterfinal matchups set. Although we didn’t get any of the big upsets in the qualifying round, there are some great games lined up, and I think we could see at least one upset in the quarters.
Slovakia vs. Germany
Slovakia shocked everyone by winning its group, alongside Sweden and Finland. Juraj Slafkovsky has added to his past incredible Olympic performances with three goals and three assists in just three games. Iowa Wild goaltender Samuel Hlavaj has also put on a show, being one of the biggest surprises in the tournament.
On top of those two notable performances, the rest of the young guns on this Slovak team have shown up. St. Louis Blues’ 10th overall pick in the 2023 Draft, Dalibor Dvorsky, has scored two goals and two assists for a total of four points in three games. Simon Nemec has also picked up two assists on the back end.
This marks the beginning of an exciting era in Slovak hockey, following the 2014 loss to Slovenia, which led Jaroslav Halak to mourn what he thought was the end of Slovak hockey.
After a spectacular group stage, Slovakia was awarded a day off and a matchup with Germany, who will have to play on the second half of a back-to-back.
Germany hasn’t shown as much as most would’ve hoped heading into the tournament. Regardless of their lacklustre group stage, they got an easy matchup against France in the qualifying round, which they handled easily, 5-1.
As excited as I am for the future of this Slovak team, I think we’ll see the upset of the quarterfinals in this matchup. In my qualifying round predicitions I talked about how disappointing Germany has been, but none of that really matters now.
While Slovakia has a deeper lineup, Germany clearly overpowers them when it comes to star power with Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle and Moritz Seider.
Germany will need their NHLers to take over the game to make up for the lack of depth in their lineup, and Philipp Grubauer will have to be sharp.
In the last five head-to-head matchups between Germany and Slovakia, Slovakia has won three of them. It’s important to note that just one of those had NHL players involved, and that is the game where Germany won while they were still missing Draisaitl, Stutzle and Seider.
The head-to-head stats show the depth discrepancies between the two countries, which shows how important it is for the German stars to break through.
I just have a feeling Draisaitl will play his best game of the tournament, and he’ll lead the way to an upset over Slovakia.
Finland vs. Switzerland
Finland started the tournament off brutally with a shocking 4-1 dismantling at the hands of Slovakia. They were able to bounce back and beat their arch rival, Sweden, and closed out their group stage by being the only team to blow out Italy with a resounding 11-0 victory.
While we’ve yet to see the best out of Mikko Rantanen, something that is very encouraging for the Finns is that Juuse Saros has gotten better after a bad opening game against the Slovaks.
Saros has the ability to steal any game he’s in if he’s at his best, which is terrifying for anyone who has to play Finland in a single elimination game. Their depth at center is also something I like about this team. We’ll have to see if Anton Lundell dresses after missing the game against Italy with an illness, but if he’s in the lineup, that’s a huge boost.
Switzerland beat Italy in the qualifying round with a 3-0 victory, but I think their tournament ends here. Their victory over Czechia in overtime after watching arguably their best player, Kevin Fiala, go down with a gruesome injury at the end of the Canada game was very impressive.
Related: Kings’ Kevin Fiala Has Season-Ending Surgery After Olympic Injury
Unfortunately, I think this is where we see the absence of Fiala really hamper the Swiss. It’ll be a tight game, but I think, although the Swiss often play better than the sum of their parts, Finland will overpower them.
I don’t think Switzerland will score enough against a Finnish team that can suffocate you and has elite goaltending.
Canada vs. Czechia
This is the first rematch we’ll see in the Olympics after Canada laid a 5-0 beating on Czechia in the group stages.
Canada has yet to face any real adversity in the tournament, comfortably winning all three of their games and leaving the group stages with a plus-17 goal differential.
It’s difficult to give a real deep analysis of Canada because of how smooth sailing everything has been. The only real storyline is Brad Marchand’s injury and what seemed like Nathan MacKinnon’s injury at the end of the game against Switzerland. It doesn’t look like either of them will miss this game against Czechia.
We’ll also have to see if Josh Morrissey is available after leaving the game against Switzerland. He played in the last game against Czechia and would be a big loss if he can’t play.
Goaltending will also be a question mark for Canada until the tournament is over. Binnington allowed a soft second goal against France, but I think he’s played well so far.
Czechia earned its rematch against Canada through a tight 3-2 win over Denmark in the qualifying round. The win continued the story of nothing coming easy for Czechia throughout the tournament. They actually trailed France 3-2 after allowing three unanswered goals in five minutes before breaking the game back open. They also had to tie it with just over two minutes left in the third against Switzerland just to get a point out of that game.
If Czechia is going to complete this upset, their stars are going to have to perform the best they have all tournament, and Dostal has to play his best game in the second half of a back-to-back.
I don’t see that happening. I think the day off is a huge advantage for Canada with some of the guys that are banged up. It’s also a big advantage because a back-to-back in the Olympics is so different from a back-to-back in the NHL. The pace that these players are playing at is like nothing they will ever experience again, and that takes a toll on the body.
I know Czechia has been the boogieman for Canadians in international hockey recently, but I think we see Canada advance to the semifinal.
USA vs. Sweden
This is my most anticipated game. Qualifying rounds are fun because it’s the first taste of single-game elimination in the tournament, but the quality of the matchups is not great.
The vibes around both teams have been a bit off. Swedish coach Sam Hallam has faced a lot of criticism for his roster decisions, and the USA’s questions about roster selection have carried storylines into the tournament.
I’ve seen a lot of people pick their upset of the quarters being Sweden beating this American team. I’m not one of them.
I’m out on this Swedish team. The goaltending has been bad, and I don’t trust their coaching staff to put their team in positions to win. I think they’re far and away the third most talented in this tournament, but when you have terrible coaching and bad goaltending, that’s enough to ruin a season or tournament.
It was insane to me that they had the confidence to sit Rasmus Andersson, Jesper Bratt and Filip Gustavsson against Latvia. I’ve discussed the back-to-back factor in these games, and it seems like Sweden was taking this into account heading into their game against Latvia.
They won, so it is actually a good thing that they rested them so they’re fresh against the USA, but it was shocking to me nonetheless.
The USA have been unimpressive so far themselves, but they’ve still won all three of their games against Latvia, Denmark and Germany with a goal differential of plus-11. I trust Connor Hellebuyck more than Gustavsson or Jacob Markstrom, even with his reputation for not showing up in big moments. It’ll be a tight game, and Sweden is capable of winning it, but I still think the USA will be moving to the semifinal.
