Preseason Prep – March 19, 2026
Pete Alonso, 1B, Baltimore Orioles
Alonso has been a consistent fantasy producer since his rookie year in 2019. Alonso has displayed some variance year-to-year, but he’s played in over 152 games in every season (except 2020 where he played in 57 of 60), slugged over .500 in five seasons, and driven in over 100 in four. This is as stable of a fantasy asset as they come. There is a false narrative about Alonso being your prototypical high-power/low-contact hitter, but his career chase and miss rates are actually in line with big league average. The biggest concern with Alonso might be that the lineup around him might be worse compared to what he had in New York, which will certainly affect R and RBI totals. As a result, his 25 ADP right now is a bit rich for me. Matt Olson, Bryce Harper, and Rafael Devers might be slightly lesser options, but on a cost-adjusted basis, it is hard for me to take Alonso at his ADP when I can get the other guys in that tier later.
Nico Hoerner, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Hoerner’s fantasy value has been pretty consistent throughout his career. A complete lack of juice coupled with a high stolen base total and average has made him interesting but impossible to reach for given his limited upside. There is news going around about Hoerner’s revamped swing leading to more flyballs, and while that is nice in theory, I don’t buy it. Hoerner posted a career high 17.5% Pull-Air rate and second-best 23.8% FB rate. He was right around league average in both categories, and still only hit 7 homers. At ADP 94, he’s not technically overpriced, but I’m much more excited about more complete players like Luke Keaschall being drafted after him.
Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres
Machado has been one of the most consistent fantasy assets of the last decade, and 2026 projects to be no different. His 51.5% Hard Hit rate and 92.9 EV in 2025 were actually both the second highest of his career. His 34.8% LASS represented only the fourth time in his career he posted a LASS over 34%. By pretty much all accounts, he has not regressed at all, and is a safe pick in drafts this year. There is a clear drop off for me past his name as the fourth 3B off the board, so I’m comfortable taking him at ADP.
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
Witt is clearly immensely talented, and it would make no sense for me to spit off some stats trying to convince you so, when it’s clearly true. The real question is, at his 3 overall ADP, is he good enough to pass on Ohtani or Judge (the answer is no) and is he clearly better than the group behind him (Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez). The truth is that Witt has never hit more than 32 homers, which is actually an important concept for someone being drafted this high. Soto has eclipsed that total three years running, crossing 40 homers the last two years. Witt has 69 stolen bases the last two years, Ramirez has 85. I think having the conversation is fair. Witt’s .424 career xwOBACON is substantially behind Soto’s (.491). Witt’s 6.5% career walk rate is super behind Soto’s (18.7%). If you’re in any kind of league that considers other offensive ratios or points, I actually think I’d comfortably take Soto. Witt only has the lead due to SB, but Soto is a clearly better hitter by both impact, contact, and swing decision. Soto stole 38 bags last year, which is a blip considering his super slow spring speed and lack of stealing in his history. But if he could recreate in the slightest, I might even still prefer him in roto leagues.
Randy Arozarena, OF, Seattle Mariners
Arozarena has posted five straight 20-20 campaigns, which is incredibly impressive in its own right. What is more impressive is that, under the hood, he’s a fairly mediocre player, so his ability to get to 20/20 year-in and year-out is really something. His career .379 xwOBACON, 25.8% K rate, and 16.7% Pull Air rate are nothing special. He’s not even that fast of a runner, which is probably why his success rate is only about 73%. He’s the 24th outfielder coming off the board, but he’s not in the same tier as the likes of Soderstrom and Merrill for me.
Luis Robert Jr, OF, New York Mets
Robert was once considered a blue chip player due to tremendous power and speed. In 2023, he hit 38 homers and stole 20 bags while posting an .857 OPS. His 2024 and 2025 were nowhere near as good, as he failed to eclipse even a .670 OPS. While Robert is still responsible for his own struggles, playing in a minor league lineup with a player development system that lacks a track record of developing hitters definitely didn’t help. Luckily, the Mets lineup will be much better, giving him plenty more opportunities to be productive and hopefully better development support. Robert still has blazing speed and top-end bat speed, so the raw skill is still there. Right now, he’s the 33rd outfielder off the board, and while that is rich for someone who has performed in two years, it looks like there is some pretty large variance in his ADP depending on what platform you draft one. There are more stable performers going later than him, like Taylor Ward and Ian Happ, but he represents an upside nobody else in this range has.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Texas Rangers
Eovaldi quietly had a stellar 2025, posting a 1.73 ERA in 130 IP across 22 starts. He set career bests in xwOBACON (.341), BB% (4.2), xERA (3.02), xFIP (3.03), and Zone Contact % (78.4). Not bad for a 35 year old. Eovaldi was a complete pitcher last year, as his 51% GB rate paired up splendidly with his ability to punch guys out and limit walks. He’s the 39th pitcher off the board right now and I’m taking him plenty if he’s going to go in that range.
Logan Gilbert, SP, Seattle Mariners
Gilbert had a shorter 2025, only throwing 131 IP across 25 starts after making 32 and 33 starts the two years prior. Gilbert does a lot of things very well – mostly punch guys out at his 32% K rate, which represented a career high. His .275 xwOBA against pairs nicely with his newfound ability to miss bats at higher rates. Gilbert’s only real flaw is that he has a homerun problem, which probably explains why his 2.95 xFIP is much lower than his 3.44 ERA. The lack of ability to get groundballs will keep him as a backend SP1, but make no mistake, he’s in the same tier as Sale, Fried, and Ragans.
Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Olson swatted 54 homers in 2023, then really let us down by only hitting 29 in both 2024 and 2025. While Olson is still a quality hitter in general, there are some things that scare me from a fantasy perspective. His 16.1 Pull Air rate was the lowest of his career, and pretty far off from his career average. His 28.3% FB rate was also a career low. He simultaneously set a career high in LASS (37.1), but a career low in LA (14.8). This means either his groundballs are really being chopped and/or his flyballs aren’t being hit hard. We expect xBA to rise with LASS, but his .249 xBA in 2025 is right in line with his career average. We know this player has tinkered with his swing a lot over the course of his career, but I don’t like the current iteration.
Yandy Diaz, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Diaz slashed .281/.341/.414 with 14 homers in 2024. It was enough to keep tabs due to the underlying hitter skillset, but the counting stats just weren’t there. In 2025, he stepped it up, slashing .300/.366/.482 with 25 homers, which was much more in line with his even stronger 2023. The inconsistency out of a position with a minimum power expectation is not helpful. Plus, the Rays will be going back to the Trop, instead of playing games at the ultra-hitter friendly minor league park they were at last year. He hit 18 homers at home and only 7 on the road, while playing near an even split. The ratios will be good. He’s posted a hard hit rate over 48% four years running, and hasn’t stricken out over 16% since 2019. But with the move back to the Trop and a questionable lineup, I still don’t think we see enough in the counting stat department.
Ketel Marte, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Secondbase isn’t the deepest position in fantasy baseball, so while hitters like Marte are premium assets. His .420 xwOBACON and 47% Hard Hit rate were both second best of his career, just behind the rates he posted in 2024. He is coming off the best two year stretch of his career. More excitingly, he posted a 23.5% Pull Air rate, far and away the best of his career. His 40.8% groundball rate was a career low. The data is strong with this one his 27 overall ADP might be steep, but he’s worth it.
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Cleveland Guardians
Ramirez has hits 39 and 30 homers and 41 and 44 stolen bases the past two seasons, so floor ability is not of the concern here. He hasn’t struck out over 12% in four years running. The single most impressive statistic is that Ramirez has ran a 26% Pull Air rate or better 8 years running. He doesn’t actually hit the ball hard, but his distinct homerun ability, sprint speed, contact make him an ultra valuable fantasy piece. He doesn’t have the impact that Witt does, nor the Soto obviously, so he is behind those guys for me.
Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs
The 2023 first rounder struggled in his first season in the bigs. His 29% Hard Hit rate, 6.9% Barrel rate, and .34 xwOBACON were very uninspiring. What’s more disappointing is his 69 mph bat speed, which is very light for someone who demonstrated more power in college. The good news, is that not all hope is lost for Mr. Shaw. He stole 17 bags thanks to premium sprint speed, which is impressive given his light .295 OBP. You can easily project to 25, maybe even 30 on a full season and moderately better OBP. Shaw also clubbed 13 homers, thanks to his 21.8% Pull Air rate. Getting to nearly 15/15 while only slashing .226/.295/.394 in 437 PA is actually really impressive, and speaks to his raw abilities. There is sneaky upside here with someone who has physical skills and a track record of being a better hitter.
Willy Adames, SS, San Francisco Giants
Adames took a slight step back in 2025 compared to 2024. His SB total dropped from 21 to 12 and his OPs dropped from .793 to .739. There is plenty of good and plenty of bad in what is a mixed profile. The good is that he hits loads of flyballs. His 68.2 Air% is well above big league average, and his 22.6% Pull Air rate is strong. The bad is that a 29% whiff rate leads to a 26% K rate. He has a career .234 xBA isn’t inspiring. Contact concerns and a limited run tool limit his upside. Getting consistent power out of the SS position is an advantage, but some better ratio players will need to be paired with Adames to compensate.
Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
I really loved Adley in the earlier parts of his career, but he just hasn’t been able to return to the same form after suffering injuries that appear to have derailed his abilities. He slashed .277/.374/.435 with 20 homers and 80 RBI in 2023. His OPS dropped 100 points to .709 in 2024 and further dropped to .673. I’m not sure if Adley has the physical ability to bounce back, but there is still a respectable underlying hitter. In 2025, his 14% whiff rate and 21% chase rate were both better than 88th Percentile. His ability to make contact is still strong. A main culprit is his 43.4% groundball rate (career high), particularly his 25% pull groundball rate, making him easy to defend against. I think the ratios could bounceback, which would still be awesome, but with Basallo on the wings, I’m not feeling good about standalone value.