Preseason Prep – March 7th: These SPs Got Hit Hard: Does it Matter?
Pitchers Hit Hardest: Does it Matter?
Hard Hit Rate is a favored metric among fantasy managers scouting hitters. But what does it mean for the pitchers who are hit hard? Here’s 15 draft-worthy SPs who were among league-leaders in highest Hard Hit Rate allowed in 2025 (Minimum 125 IP).
Framber Valdez SP DET
46.3% Hard Hit Rate (7th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: A bit. Another hard-working season for the lefty, firing 192 IP with 187 Ks, limiting the damage. The WHIP climbed to an edge of acceptable 1.24, which is something to keep an eye on as he moves to Detroit, presumably to a deluxe apartment in the sky.
What He Does Well: Elite Groundball rate plays just about anywhere, so his 59.4% Groundball inducement bodes well for his floor, but his ceiling likely lowers every year he throws nearly 200 IP and father time comes for Framber entering his age 32 season.
Edward Cabrera SP CHC
46.4% Hard Hit Rate (T8th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Not to the Cubs, who traded prospects to MIA for him, and for good reason: Cabrera sat at 150 K in 137 IP, limiting his WHIP to 1.23 and an ERA of 3.53, despite the frequent missiles.
What He Does Well: His average fastball velo sits high at 96.9, with a Whiff Rate hovering around 30%. His groundball rate is solid at 74% and will play well with Cub defense. At age 27, 2026 could be the season it all comes together for Cabrera. Draft him a round earlier than the crowd, he could be worth it.
Luis Castillo SP SEA
46.4% Hard Hit Rate (T8th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Not really. Fantasy and reality SP bedrock Castillo held his WHIP in check at 1.18 and his ERA was 3.54 over 180 IP in 2025.
What He Does Well: Statcast knows not from where Castillo’s success comes, in fact the model only appreciates 6.2% BB Rate. Perhaps the number-crunchers should strap on a helmet and face the odd arm-slot slinger some sleepless Seattle evening.
Ryne Nelson SP ARI
45.5% Hard Hit Rate (15th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: No. Despite being among the 15 hardest hit SPs, Ryne spun a sparkling 1.07 WHIP over 154 IP leading to a fantastic 2025 for Nelson, with 33 Starts and a nifty 3.39 ERA.
What He Does Well: Statcast digs Nelson’s 6.6 BB Rate and 96.7 MPH Average Fastball Velo, not to mention his handy 87th Percentile Extension. Nelson fired nearly 450 IP over the last three seasons and his WHIP has dipped from 1.42 in 2023 down to 1.07 last season. Draft with 2024 in mind: 150 IP, 1.26 WHIP and 4.34 ERA.
Shane Smith SP CHW
45.4% Hard Hit Rate (16th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Not too much. Shane dealt 146 IP in his Rookie campaign, striking out 145 and maintaining a serviceable 1.20 WHIP. The Sox feel good about the young RHP, and he looks to be a likely candidate to start Opening Day in 2026.
What He Does Well: Smith delivered 29 starts and avoided major implosions for the most part, and Statcast digs his ability to suppress Barrels at 6.7% and his ample extension rate in the 80th Percentile. Perhaps a step forward in 2026 could see more Ks, making Smith a nice sneaky SP to stash later on in drafts.
José Soriano SP LAA
48.2% Hard Hit Rate (4th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Yes. Soriano owns filthy stuff, highlighted by an elite power sinker and 97 MPH average velo on the fastball, but it didn’t translate to effective out-getting in 2025. The WHIP went 1.40 and Ks were less than IP, while the ERA travelled north to 4.26
What He Does Well: The most elite Groundball rate at 66% points to good things if LAA can play defense, and the raw stuff, especially the sinker and fastball are good. Perhaps the best thing Soriano could do is get traded to the Brewers, Cubs, Rays or Guardians.
Slade Cecconi SP CLE
49.1% Hard Hit Rate (2nd Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: To some extent. Slade maintained a reasonable 1.19 WHIP over 132 IP, but his ERA climbed to 4.30 by season’s end. His Whiff Rate was a meager 22.5%.
What He Does Well: Mostly being a Cleveland pitcher, well-coached to walk very few (5.9% BB Rate) and minimize damage. Statcast likes nothing beyond his Walk Rate, so the underlying numbers say number 4 or 5 SP who could be ticketed to mop-up duty someday soon…risky business.
Nick Pivetta SP SDP
45% Hard Hit Rate (20th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: A 2.87 ERA with 0.99 WHIP in 2025 says Hard Hit didn’t matter to Pivetta.
What He Does Well: Pivetta has three straight seasons with a WHIP under 1.14, in nearly 400 IP. Statcast doesn’t understand what it’s like to face Pivetta, and really only likes his 26% K Rate and 85th percentile Extension.
Spencer Strider SP ATL
42.7% Hard Hit Rate (32nd Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: It appears to have mattered, as well as his injury return. 1.40 WHIP is unsightly for the formally dominant hurler, who can never again be expected to K 100 more than IP as he did in 2023. However, he gave ATL 125 IP with 131 K, showing the stuff still lurks.
What He Does Well: His fastball still rocked well at 95.5 MPH average with a 31% Whiff Rate, indicating that more Ks should be on the way. Could be a huge steal in a bounceback 2026. Draft with your fingers crossed. So far this spring, his velocity is 96ish and the slider looks good.
George Kirby SP SEA
43.9% Hard Hit Rate (28th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: A bit. Kirby was a strong starter, firing 23 starts with a 1.19 WHIP but, despite the heavy Northwest air, his ERA went up to 4.21, making him a ratio risk moving forward.
What He Does Well: Per usual, Kirby’s Fastball Velo (96.2 MPH average) and command (5.5% BB Rate) keeps the floor high and Seattle is a solid team with a great catcher. The continued climb of his ratios over the last 3 seasons is concerning, so don’t draft Kirby as an anchor, consider him a nice IP base for your better pitchers. I’ll be passing.
Jack Flaherty SP DET
43.8% Hard Hit Rate (T29th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Yes. Consistently among the most overrated SPs, Flaherty delivered on some promise with 161 IP and 188 Ks, but the loud contact drove his ERA sky high to 4.64 and the WHIP up to 1.28.
What He Does Well: His K Rate is 27% and his IP over the last three years averages 150 IP, so Jack is likely to post for you, it’s just a matter of how many Ks are worth the troubling ratios. He’s joined by pals “Trashcan” Hinch and old-timer Verlander, who may be helpful for the mercurial hurler, but wait till later in the draft to find out.
Seth Lugo SP KC
45.2% Hard Hit Rate (18th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Eventually. Despite the hot start and the numbers that we kept saying would crater, Lugo provided an ultimately pedestrian 1.29 WHIP and 4.15 ERA by the end of 2025.
What He Does Well: Lugo gets zero love from Statcast and pretty much any predictive model, so I guess what he does well is throw innings. If you’re in a league with an IP category and you want a pitcher who won’t implode your ratios, you should go for Lugo.
Robbie Ray SP SFG
44.7% Hard Hit Rate (22th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Not a lot. Ray’s not a Cy Young candidate anymore, but the heavy SF air helped to cool all the Hard Hits and high Barrel Rate (9.6%) that he allowed. Despite the loud contact, Ray managed to deal 182 IP of 3.65 ERA with 186 Ks.
What He Does Well: His 27.8% Whiff Rate keeps Ray missing enough bats to log quality innings and he should be a good SP to target in later middle rounds. Ray claims to have rediscovered his proper delivery point this spring, so there’s reason to expect him to run it back in 2026, but be ready for the ERA to potentially climb a bit, as luck was certainly a factor.
MacKenzie Gore SP TEX
44.1% Hard Hit Rate (25th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Yes. Gore continued to whiff hitters near a 30% clip and delivered 159 IP for the defensively challenged Nationals, but it all translated to an ERA north of 4 and an ugly WHIP of 1.35. At 27, Gore has yet to put it all together, but he gets a new start in Texas.
What He Does Well: Gore strikes hitters out, a lot. If Texas can tinker enough to help him avoid some of the LOUD contact (10.6% Barrels), Gore could become a league-winner for you. But the question is: what do you do, hotshot? I’ll draft him earlier than I should and hope for the next level to be unlocked.
Jack Leiter SP TEX
43.9% Hard Hit Rate (26th Highest Allowed)
Did it Matter: Some. The highly-touted youngster delivered on the promise of Ks (148 over 151 IP) but the louder contact nudged his ERA toward 4 and dragged WHIP to an unsightly 1.28.
What He Does Well: Leiter led Texas with an average of 97 MPH velo on the heater and showed promising 88th Percentile extension. Still just 25, Jack could take a step up in 2026, and make a nice rotation addition for your fantasy team. If you can handle the middling ratios, he should get you plenty of Ks.