The 2026 tennis season is upon us, so it’s time to make predictions for the prestigious field of eight at the annual Nitto ATP Finals. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are obviously massive favorites to be No. 1 and No. 2 in some order, but the other six spots could be relatively up for grabs.
Here are my Turin picks for 2026, in order:
1. Jannik Sinner – As predicted in 2025, Sinner finished the year at No. 2 in the rankings. If not for a three-month suspension, the Italian would have been No. 1 — and with room to spare, too. Assuming he plays a full schedule in 2026, Sinner should be considered the favorite over Alcaraz to secure the top spot. Alcaraz’s absolute peak is arguably higher, but Sinner’s consistency is unrivaled. The 24-year-old is the king of hard courts — that, of course, is the surface on which the vast majority of tennis is played.
2. Carlos Alcaraz – Unlike last season, there are more question marks surrounding Alcaraz than Sinner heading into 2026. The Spaniard’s split from coach Juan Carlos Ferrero was the biggest story of the offseason. Alcaraz should be fine with the rest of his sizable team in place, but Ferrero’s exit certainly can’t help. Whatever the case, the 22-year-old just isn’t as consistent as his arch rival. I expect another awesome season with multiple slam titles, but that still might not be enough for Alcaraz to keep his grasp on the No. 1 ranking.
3. Taylor Fritz – Counting full-time players (ie, excluding Novak Djokovic), Fritz looks like the third-best player in the world right now. Despite what the rankings would suggest, Alexander Zverev cannot really stake a claim to that distinction when he is getting dominated so badly by Fritz in their head-to-head series. The 28-year-old is awesome on both hard courts and grass, so he always has a great chance to reach at least the semifinals at three of the four majors. If he can produce just a couple of decent results at the clay-court Masters 1000s and/or Roland Garros, the No. 3 spot is certainly a realistic goal.
4. Alexander Zverev – It was, as usual, a typical season for Zverev in 2025. He reached another Grand Slam final (Australian Open), once again came up short, and found himself in the top three of the year-end rankings. The pressure continues to mount on the 28-year-old German in his quest to win a major. He is not getting any younger, while Alcaraz and Sinner are only getting better. Unless Zverev starts playing more aggressive tennis on a more consistent basis, he is not going to suddenly start improving in the proverbial second half of his career. If anything, I see him taking a minor step back in 2026.
5. Lorenzo Musetti – Musetti is simply a fantastic all-court tennis player. He has reached at least the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam on all three surfaces, including the semis at both Wimbledon (2024) and the French Open (2025). It feels like the Italian has already been around forever, but — shockingly — he is still a mere 23 years old. Musetti has not even arrived at his prime! Combine his consistency on every surface with his flair for making deep runs on the biggest stages and the result should be a titanic season for the current world No. 8.
6. Daniil Medvedev – Would I put my life savings on a Medvedev resurgence? Nope. But at 29 years old, he is still in his prime and should be able to restore order to his career following the disaster that was last season. As bad as Medvedev was by his standards, he was actually decent outside of slams. Despite winning just one total match at the four Grand Slams combined, the Russian still finished at a respectable 13th in the world. Bringing a merciful end to his title-winning drought (he lifted the Almaty trophy in October) should give Medvedev some momentum heading into 2026.
7. Ben Shelton – Shelton comfortably qualified for the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals before going winless in Turin and finishing at No. 9 in the world. If not for a shoulder injury sustained at the U.S. Open, the left-handed American almost certainly would have been No. 5. At 23 years old and only improving, there is no reason — other than another injury — why Shelton shouldn’t remain at least in the top eight. As a formidable player on every surface, he can rack up tons of points throughout the entire season. Thriving on the big stage — when the points grabs are the most substantial — also helps.
8. Joao Fonseca – Many tennis fans probably thought Fonseca should have been even better than he was in 2025 (he finished at No. 24 in the rankings). The Brazilian was just 18 years old for the majority of that season, though, so the brakes should have been pumped. Now, however, it’s time for Fonseca to take off. He is already one of the most talented players in the world, so — even at 19 — he looks ready to make the leap into superstardom for which he is destined. The Fonseca hype train already left the station in 2025; now it will pick up steam in 2026.
Alternates
9. Novak Djokovic – Unlike his much younger rivals, Djokovic isn’t going to play anywhere close to a full schedule. And — even if he is in contention — the 38-year-old won’t bother making a late push for Turin by overloading his calendar during the fall swing. Djokovic obviously remains a top-five kind of player when he wants to be; the bottom line is that he can’t be expected to play enough to be in the top eight.
10. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Felix Auger-Aliassime, Alex de Minaur, Casper Ruud…. All of those guys are former year-end championship participants and have a good chance to once again be in the mix. However, I’ll roll with Davidovich Fokina to make his way to Turin as an alternate. I just feel like the floodgates will open when he finally wins his first ATP title. If ADF can do it at some point in the early stages of 2026, a big year could be in the cards.