Tournament: Qatar ExxonMobil Open (ATP 500)
Dates: February 16-21, 2026
Surface: Hard court (outdoor)
Location: Khalifa International Tennis & Squash Complex, Doha
The Qatar Open delivers an impressive field with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner headlining their return since the Australian Open. With Novak Djokovic withdrawing due to fatigue, the draw has opened up – creating betting value opportunities beyond the obvious favorites.
Tournament Favorites
Carlos Alcaraz (Seed 1)
Fresh off his Australian Open triumph where he became the youngest to complete the Career Grand Slam, Alcaraz has a favorable path. Opens against Arthur Rinderknech (4-0 H2H), then likely Valentin Royer, before a projected quarterfinal with Karen Khachanov. Last year he lost in the QF to Jiri Lehecka, a result he’ll be motivated to improve.
Jannik Sinner (Seed 2)
Making his Doha debut after his AO semifinal loss to Djokovic. Has the tougher draw with Tomas Machac (R1), Alexei Popyrin (R2) and potential Jakub Mensik quarterfinal. Sinner’s hard court dominance is undeniable, but the path is more challenging than Alcaraz’s.
Value Picks
Alexander Bublik (Seed 3) – Semifinal or Better
Bublik reached the SF in Rotterdam after some great matches again but seem to crash out against higher ranked players lately. However, he’s been one of the most improved players over the past year and starts against a qualifier. The Kazakh has the game to possibly trouble Sinner in a potential semifinal, but it seems to be either or with this guy…
He has the match sharpness at the moment and we think he will arrive at the semis, can he cause an upset even there? At longer odds for a deep run, this is a solid value play.
Best Bet: Bublik to reach SF
Jakub Mensik (Seed 6) – Dark Horse Alert
The Czech sensation reached the Australian Open quarterfinals before withdrawing with an abdominal injury against Djokovic. If healthy, Mensik is dangerous on fast courts. Projected quarterfinal against Sinner could be closer than odds suggest.
Mensik is comfortable in Doha, thrives on outdoor hard courts, and has the big-hitting game to hurt anyone. If his injury is fully healed, he’s underpriced. A player that challenge even the top names.
Best Bet: Mensik to reach QF
Jiri Lehecka (Seed 8) – Revenge Match Potential
Lehecka defeated Alcaraz in the Doha QF last year. The Czech hasn’t had an ideal start to 2026, but he knows how to play in these conditions. Opens against Jenson Brooksby (tough), then possibly Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard or Zizou Bergs.
Projected quarterfinal: Alexander Bublik
Possible semifinal: Sinner
As an 8-seed, Lehecka will surely be undervalued despite proving he can beat Alcaraz here. His patience and power from the baseline can trouble the favorites in best-of-three.
Best Bet: Lehecka to reach QF
Another player that have potential and a fairly easy draw in the beginning is Tsitsipas (if he can overcome Medvedev in 2nd round), can he make a deep run?
Interesting Matches to Watch
Khachanov vs Munar (R1)
Karen Khachanov (Seed 7) is the 2024 Doha champion but faces Jaume Munar, who improved consistently across 2025. Munar is usually good on clay but has shown he can compete on faster surfaces. Khachanov could be tested early, especially if Munar brings his improved level.
Value angle: Munar hcp betting offers value. Khachanov can be inconsistent, and Munar’s improved form makes this closer than the seeding suggests.
Mpetshi Perricard vs Bergs (R1)
Battle of the big servers. Mpetshi Perricard has one of the fastest serves on tour, Bergs is probably the better players lately though. This could be a coin flip decided by one break.
Value angle: Over games total. These matches rarely have many breaks.
Machac vs Sinner (R1)
Sinner leads H2H 2-0, but Machac “on a good day” can challenge anyone. Sinner returning from AO disappointment needs to find rhythm quickly.
Value angle: Machac +1.5 sets for insurance. Unlikely win, but could steal a set.
Sinner v Alcaraz final?
While Alcaraz and Sinner are rightful favorites for an anticipated final, the best-of-three format and quick turnaround from Australia creates upset potential. Look for value in players like Bublik, Mensik and Lehecka who thrive in these conditions.
The smart money isn’t always on the favorites, it’s on finding the spots where the odds don’t reflect the reality of form, matchups, and motivation. And make sure you always look at handicap odds and set betting results.