With last night’s loss, the New York Rangers sit 29th in the NHL with 71 points. This puts them one point ahead of 30th place Calgary, though the Flames have a game in hand. All eyes are on the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick in the draft lottery. Though the Blueshirts still have six games left, their placement in the standings and thus in the draft lottery likely won’t move too much outside of an unexpected win streak by the Rangers, Flames, or Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 68 points).
This late in the season, you won’t see many teams catching teams that are more than 2 points ahead of them in the standings. It’s certainly possible, and there is a path for the Rangers to fall back to 31st in the NHL, but it’s unlikely.
It’s unlikely the Rangers move up to 28th or 27th in the NHL
That said, it’s also highly unlikely the Rangers move up to 28th (St. Louis – 74 points, 2 games in hand) or 27th in the standings (Seattle – 75 points, 2 games in hand). The Rangers can max out at 83 points, which means St. Louis needs just 9 of 16 available points, and Seattle just 8 of 16 available points. And remember, that’s if the Rangers win out, which they won’t. Both St. Louis and Seattle hold the regulation wins tiebreaker.
The Rangers have four games left against playoff/bubble teams and two against non-playoff teams. A 2-4 record seems to be the most likely scenario, but 3-3 or 4-2 if Tampa rests players to close out the season is also doable. Taking the “worst case scenario” where the Rangers win four games, that’s 79 points, so 5 and 4 points needed by St. Louis and Seattle, respectively.
The Rangers odd for the #1 overall pick probably won’t go down over the last six games of the season. Their schedule isn’t great and they’d have too much ground to make up on the two catchable teams ahead of them.
Realistically, the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick stay where they are or improve slightly.
Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick depend on Calgary
Though in theory the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick can improve significantly by having both Calgary (70 points, 1 game in hand) and Chicago (68 points, even games played) go on runs, only Calgary has a realistic shot of catching and passing the Rangers.
Calgary’s remaining schedule is pretty brutal: @ ANH, @ DAL, @ COL, @ SEA, vs UTA, and vs COL, vs LAK. Even accounting for Colorado resting players in that second game, it’s hard to imagine the Flames winning more than two games. Let’s be conservative and say Calgary goes 2-4-1. Assuming the Rangers go 2-4-0, as mentioned above, then they’d flip in the standings since Calgary has the regulation wins tiebreaker.
This likely caps the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick at the 3rd overall pick entering the lottery. Chicago has six games left: @ SEA, @ SJ, vs CAR, vs STL, vs BUF, vs SJ. That’s at least two losses to Carolina and Buffalo, and four tossups. Assuming Chicago splits the tossups, that’s a 2-4 record to close out the year. The only way the Rangers fall to 31st in this scenario is if they lose out, which isn’t likely.
To address the obvious comments: Yes anything can happen. This is to address the most likely scenarios, not outliers like any team winning/losing out. Rooting against them to lose really doesn’t help, and it’s more fun to watch the kids win anyway.
Rangers odds for each pick
If they finish 29th in the NHL, meaning they stay where they are, the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick stay at 9.5%. Per Tankathon, the Rangers would also have a 9.5% chance of getting the #2 overall pick. But this is where things get tricky.
The Rangers would have a 0.3% chance of getting the third overall pick and a 15.4% chance of staying at #4 overall. If you’re doing the math, that means the Rangers have a 34.7% chance of staying where they are or moving up. That means they have a 65.3% chance of falling back at least one spot to #5 overall (44.6% chance) or two spots to #6 overall (20.8% chance).
Yes, that means the Rangers have higher odds of moving back than they do moving up or staying at #4 overall. It’s a lottery for a reason.
If they move up to 30th in the NHL, then the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick move up to 11.5%, with an 11.2% chance of getting the #2 overall pick and a 7.8% chance of staying at #3 overall. Again, the odds of moving back are far higher than moving up or staying at #3 overall, with a 39.7% chance at #4 overall and a 29.8% chance of #5 overall. That’s a 69.5% chance of moving back at least one spot.
After 50 sims on Tankathon, here are the results:
- 1st: 5 (10%)
- 2nd: 6 (12%)
- 3rd: 0
- 4th: 12 (24%)
- 5th: 20 (40%)
- 6th: 7 (14%)
Maximizing the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick by losing out doesn’t really help much. This is a draft lottery for a reason. Setting expectations that the Rangers pick at 5th overall may help manage some disappointment should the ping pong balls not fall the Rangers way. As of now, it’s far more likely the Rangers pick in the 4-6 range than in the 1-3 range.
Tanking isn’t always the answer, especially in this case where the Rangers odds for the #1 overall pick aren’t impacted much by losing out.