Red Bull have changed the narrative about their chances of being competitive in 2026, with their first ever F1 power unit exceeding expectations. The more pessimistic forecasts about Red Bull have been discarded, with the RB22 showing a solid baseline in Barcelona and Sakhir.
The question is now whether Red Bull’s package is strong enough to set the pace. At present, Laurent Mekies’ personnel are expected to be in the top four group with Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren.
Of course, being at the front and having the fastest car are two very different things.
Whilst the Milton Keynes outfit continue to downplay their chances, rivals believe Red Bull are hiding their potential.
Red Bull on the pace, rivals take notice
When Red Bull arrived to the Barcelona shakedown, the consensus was that reliability hiccups were inevitable. In theory, the process of transitioning from a customer to manufacturer team is immensely difficult.
Aston Martin’s rough start to their Honda partnership is evidence of how much more complex the equation is for engine manufacturers.
This is partly why it was so surprising, both for rivals and even Red Bull themselves, when the RB22 ran without any significant issues in Barcelona.
Having completed hundreds of laps at the Spanish Circuit, the Austrian team left confident about their work over winter. This positive feeling continues in Bahrain, where Red Bull have managed to maintain a high standard of reliability.
In terms of pure performance, the pecking order is still difficult to decipher. Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren all look to be in a strong place to start these 2026 regulations.
Distinguishing between these teams is far more tricky, and will become the area of focus over the coming weeks.
In textbook fashion, teams are happy to accuse each other of having the fastest cars. Unsurprisingly, no team principal or driver has been willing to describe themselves as favourites.
Given that Red Bull’s power unit has come as such a surprise, the Milton Keynes squad has received substantial analysis from rivals.
Some of these comments, understandably, are part of the political games that typically take place in pre-season. However, the RB22 has also genuinely impressed the paddock.
Aside from the Red Bull engine’s top speeds and horsepower, its electrical harvesting and energy saving is very strong. The Austrian machine is capable of recharging their battery extremely quickly, and – according to some analysts – faster than the other manufacturers.
Although lower engine modes can hide a power unit’s brute strength, electrical efficiency is harder to obscure – and in this sense Red Bull are not going unnoticed.
Of course, for their part, Red Bull insist that other teams are playing a game. Max Verstappen insists that Mercedes have plenty of performance in reserve and ready to unleash in Australia.
Speaking from the Mercedes perspective, George Russell argues that Red Bull are a genuine threat:
“Ultimately, that was all [people expecting Mercedes to have the best engine] because of noise and speculation in the media…
“The truth is, I think we have a strong power unit. I think we’ve delivered a very good car. But right now, Red Bull seem to have delivered the best engine at the moment.
“We’ve got work to do, history says they’ve also delivered a pretty decent car over previous years.
“So of course we would’ve wished otherwise, but this is F1, and everybody is pushing everyone to the limit – so let’s see in Melbourne.”
Red Bull where they want to be
Ultimately, the fact Red Bull are even in the same conversations as the front-runners is a success. Ordinarily, being amongst the top teams would be the bare minimum target for the Austrian team.
Of course, the circumstances of these 2026 regulations change things. Red Bull have seemingly skipped the adversity and hardship that sceptics anticipated would come with developing their own F1 power unit.
The team’s strategy of aggressively recruiting engineers from rivals seems to have paid off.
Moreover, Red Bull are understood to signed dozens of Honda engineers – who became available when the Japanese brand decided to abandon F1 in 2021.
By the time Honda changed their mind and committed to the 2026 regulations with Aston Martin, Red Bull had already signed many of their engineers. This inheritance has undoubtedly helped Max Verstappen’s personnel in hitting the ground running.
Previously on LWOS, we explained why the Red Bull engine could exceed expectations. For the time being, this best-case scenario for the Milton Keynes outfit seems to be materialising.
Even if the Red Bull engine is slightly off the pace compared to the Mercedes of Ferrari power units, the team will be content.
The objective for this season, their first as a manufacturer team, was to have an engine within touching distance of the best. By achieving this, they believe they give their aerodynamic team to bridge the cap.
In this sense, the RB22 is unlikely to be held back by the engine at the back of the car.