Four all-seeded showdowns are on the Indian Wells Monday schedule, including Casper Ruud vs. Valentin Vacherot and Alex de Minaur vs. Cameron Norrie. Spots in the round of 16 are at stake.
(24) Valentin Vacherot vs. (14) Casper Ruud
The sample size is still way too small to know if Vacherot is a Masters 1000 specialist, but he is certainly thriving at this level in the early stages of his main-tour career. Perhaps the most shocking tennis story in 2025 was Vacherot’s title in Shanghai, where he defeated cousin Arthur Rinderknech in the final. The world No. 26 from Monaco promptly followed that up with a quarterfinal performance in Paris. Vacherot is off to a solid start this season, with eight match victories — including a 7-5, 7-5 defeat of Nuno Borges at the BNP Paribas Open on Saturday.
Up next for the 27-year-old on Monday is a first-ever showdown against Ruud. Although Indian Wells conditions should be decent for the 13th-ranked Norwegian, he is only 8-5 all time at this tournament with just two trips past the third round and none past the quarters. Ruud dismissed Alexander Shevchenko 6-1, 7-6(4) on Saturday, but now he faces a much more powerful opponent who can dictate play and exploit the No. 14 seed’s backhand.
Pick: Vacherot in 3
(27) Cameron Norrie vs. (6) Alex de Minaur
De Minaur and Norrie will be squaring off for the fifth time in their careers on Monday. The head-to-head series is all tied up at 2-2, with both of Norrie’s victories coming at the United Cup — most recently in a third-set tiebreaker at the 2024 event. De Minaur prevailed in three sets at the 2022 Barcelona ATP 500 and in straight sets at the 2023 Toronto Masters.
Norrie is a former champion in Indian Wells, having lifted the trophy in improbable fashion five years ago. The 29th-ranked Brit is off to a good start this time around, as he crushed Mackenzie McDonald 6-2, 6-3 on Saturday. De Minaur is just 9-7 lifetime at this tournament with zero trips to the quarterfinals. As such, this match could be more competitive than one might expect if you simply look at the rankings. Still, De Minaur is coming off a very good win over an in-form Sebastian Korda and should be able to battle his way into round four.
Pick: De Minaur in 3