Salary cap in question, diminishing returns, and a plea for more hockey trades: Leaflets
It’s beginning to look a lot like trade talk. And with the Holiday Roster Freeze just around the corner, why not dive into the realities of that here.
Buy high, sell low
The thing is with Maccelli, as it may eventually be with Brandon Carlo, Scott Laughton or Dakota Joshua as well, the Leafs paid a higher price than they should have to bring in these players and it is hard to imagine that the team will recoup what they gave up for them. Failing to recoup a third round pick for Maccelli or a fourth round pick for Dakota Joshua won’t be the end of the world, but when you look at players like Carlo or Laughton where 1sts and quality prospects were given up for players that haven’t delivered at the cost paid for them, there should be a lot of pressure from Keith Pelley towards Brad Treliving on finding ways to make this right.
Cap bubble bursting
“Teams certainly sound like they don’t want the cap raised from the targeted $104 million in 2026-27. If revenues continue at the current pace (Bettman said between $6.8 billion and $6.9 billion in US dollars), there would be room to rise. But, now it appears they would rather send a “top-up” payment to the players (to ensure the revenue split is 50/50) rather than raise the cap. That’s new, but it shows how much they are wary of the rapidly-rising ceiling — even with new revenue-sharing rules to help the middle-class.”
First reaction is “good luck to changing what they’ve already committed to.” The cap will spike in the early years of the CBA but with “affordability” becoming an important part of the lexicon as cost of living challenges impact us all and with growing push back and increased controversies surrounding sports gambling occurring more frequently, pumping the brakes on a gate driven league’s salary cap seems likely as soon as it is possible.
The Leafs have been good at controlling a lot of their contracts and seemingly will be in good shape if that financial reckoning comes and perhaps because it would benefit the Leafs in the current situation means it will never happen, but it is interesting that now that this idea is out there if teams will revert to a more cautious approach when it comes to free agents, both internal and external.
League parity, the rising salary cap, overall risk aversion of NHL GMs has potential to make this the most underwhelming trade deadline yet
The second issue is going to be one that eventually comes to a head after risk aversion is no longer an option. For now, the salary cap rising is reducing the sense of urgency in cashing out on pending free agent rental players as it has never been so easy to throw money at players (pre-2004 might have been easier, but the easiest time in the past 20 years). Unless you have a Rasmus Andersson situation where the player seems motivated to dodge a clear cut rebuild and the organization needs to cash out on a talented player, it’s likely that most teams will re-sign their players if there is hope of making the playoffs over the term of their next contract.
That brings us to the big one and its league parity. Pretty much every team is still in the playoff hunt at this point. The Predators, Canucks, Flames, and Sabres have likely checked out, but other than that is within a couple of points of a playoff spot or basically one mini win streak away from a playoff berth. That’s certainly going to create a seller’s market and limit who is available.
In addition to that, with so many teams on the bubble and no one truly running away with the league (other than the Avs) it seems unwise to spend excessively to potentially miss the playoffs with your rental. The next couple of months should create greater separation in the numbers (funny how that works) but combine the current parity with a greater number of teams feeling they stayed in the season longer than expected, clubs might not be as willing to part with their assets if they feel they are close.
The Leafs are very much in that bubble of teams that should be cautious about what they give up in a year they may not or barely make the playoffs. At the same time, selling too early would be throwing in the towel on a very salvageable season. You can also look at the fact that the Leafs regardless of the playoff picture need to find more high end talent to offset the departure of Mitch Marner.
It seems like every GM is always looking for hockey trades but only if they feel they can fleece the other GM or it’s a perfect fit for them. If the status quo remains, it seems like it will be another somewhat boring march to the trade deadline.