Shane Bieber needs to find his pre-Tommy John form

Blue Jays 2026 40-man Roster Review: Shane Bieber needs to find his pre-Tommy John form

The Toronto Blue Jays have a big question mark in their rotation.

The right-handed pitcher won the American League Cy Young in 2020, authoring a 1.63 ERA and 2.07 FIP in 77.1 innings pitched, en route to the Triple Crown. He threw just 96.2 innings in 2021, then had a strong 2022 season with a 2.88 ERA and 2.78 FIP in 200 innings pitched.

After that, injuries started to take over, as Bieber threw just 128 innings in 2023, where he had a 3.80 ERA and 3.87 FIP. After two scoreless starts to begin the 2024 season, Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season.

When the Blue Jays acquired the right-handed pitcher on Jul. 31, 2025, he hadn’t pitched in a big league game since Apr. 2, 2024. He also suffered a setback in his first rehab assignment in late May, meaning he didn’t start pitching again until about two weeks before the trade.

After the Jays acquired him, Bieber made three rehab appearances with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons, before finally making his debut on Aug. 22, where he went six innings of one-run ball, giving up just two hits and striking out nine.

This happened to be Bieber’s best start as a Blue Jay, at least until the playoffs, as he finished the season with a 3.57 ERA and 4.47 FIP in 40.1 innings pitched. Bieber appeared in five postseason games, finishing with a 3.86 ERA and 4.26 FIP in 18.2 innings pitched. That said, his performance in the postseason was a mixed bag.

Starting with the good, the Blue Jays’ season was essentially on the line in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series, Bieber struck out eight in six innings of work, giving up just two earned runs in a crucial 13-4 win. He started Game 7 of the same series, holding the Seattle Mariners to two earned runs in three and two-third innings. Bieber’s lone start of the World Series saw him go five and one-third innings, giving up just one earned run in an important 6-2 win to level the series at two.

The bad was that he gave up what turned out to be the game-winning run in the 11th inning of Game 7 in the World Series. Like Jeff Hoffman, that lone home run dampens what was otherwise a pretty good playoff for the right-handed pitcher.

Shortly after the World Series, Bieber opted into his player option worth $16 million next season. It was a move that came out of nowhere, as everyone expected him to opt-out and test the market. That said, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported during the Winter Meetings that Bieber was dealing with forearm soreness toward the end of the season, which could’ve played a role into his decision.

The big storylines revolving around Bieber is whether he can stay healthy in 2026 and also find that next level like in 2020 and 2022. Fangraphs’ Steamer projects Bieber to finish the season with a 3.87 ERA and 3.77 FIP in 153 innings pitched, with a 21.7 K% and 5.6 BB%. Ideally, he pitches better than that, but if not, he’s a fantastic middle-of-the-rotation starter.

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