The quarterfinals of the BNP Paribas Open will be played Thursday perhaps in most blistering heat the tournament has seen in years. Temperatures are forecast near record high at 36C as a heat wave sweeps over the American Southwest. Temperatures Friday and Sunday are forecast to be even hotter, with a sweltering 37C the day of the final. On the hard courts, it will be a few degrees warmer than that. Fitness and hydration might be as big a factor as anything else as the draw whittles down.
The final eight represent a classic constellation of WTA draws. Superstar players established at the top will meet the young ones fighting for their breakthroughs and a scrappy qualifier trying to continue her fairytale run.
Aryna Sabalenka [1] versus Victoria Mboko [10]
Aryna Sabalenka comes in as world No. 1 and winner of four hardcourt Grand Slam titles, but the Indian Wells trophy has eluded her.
The Belarusian will play Canadian Victoria Mboko. They played once before at the 2026 Australian Open round of 16, where the 27-year-old favorite walked away with the win at 6-1 7-6(1). At the time of her last press conference, she was not sure if she would play Mboko or Amanda Anismova, but was excited at either prospect: “I love that they are aggressive, I feel that both of them are fighters. I played a lot of matches against Amanda, just one against Mboko, but it’s been tough battles against both. It’s been really aggressive tennis. It’s been fun playing both. I’m super excited facing, doesn’t matter who’s gonna win the match.”
The 19-year-old Mboko is ready for the challenge. She told media, “I think it was a big eye-opener playing her in the Australian Open, and I’d say coming into this match, of course, I played her, so I know what to expect. I do think about it a lot, and you always try to see how to improve yourself in those kinds of situations in practice and hopefully the next round I could be more prepared for those kinds of balls.”
Elina Svitolina [9] versus Iga Swiatek [2]
Iga Swiatek lifted the trophy in 2022 and 2024 and has advanced quite comfortably through the draw, taking out Maria Sakkari, who beat her just last month. Even with her experience and success on these courts, the 24-year-old is bracing herself for the heat. She told media, “I haven’t played here in 35 degrees Celsius, so for sure it’s going to be a different experience. I’m not going to change much in terms of the game. I’m only going to adjust the strings.”
Next she will face world No. 9 Elina Svitolina, whom she has beaten in four of their five encounters. Previewing the match-up, unsure if she might not play Katerina Siniakova instead, the Polish player said: “No matter who I’m gonna play, it’s gonna be a tough match because these are players that are basing their game at being solid, running to everything and getting every ball back. I think I’m gonna have to have a lot of discipline to just finish the point even couple of times sometimes. But, yeah, it’s going to be tough anyway. It’s the second week of a really great tournament, so only good players play. So, yeah, I’ll watch probably a little bit, and then I’ll be ready.”
Jessica Pegula [5] versus Elena Rybakina [3]
Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head with Jessica Pegula 4-3. Most recently, the player representing Kazakhstan won their 2026 Australian Open semifinal, 6-3 7-6(7). In Indian Wells, the American can count on the crowd support for their country woman, but Rybakina comes into the match having lifted the trophy here in 2023.
At 32-years-old, Pegula is currently the oldest in the Top 30, but she does not see that as a downside. In fact, she is still constantly tinkering and adjusting, trying to optimize her performance: “I think right now I’m just very open to learning, I’m always very open to trying new things. I think one of the strengths I have as an athlete is probably being able to change something and implement it very quickly. I think that’s something too even my coaches now have kind of seen over the last couple years. I was very open to trying to figure things out, how do I get things better, watching other players, watching what players do really well, and trying to implement certain things into my game and seeing if I can do the same thing.”
Linda Noskova [14] versus Talia Gibson [Q]
Linda Noskova and Talia Gibson are both only 21-years-old, but the Czech has already climbed to a career high No. 12 and is currently sitting at No. 14. Until the rankings come out after the the tournament ends, Talia Gibson officially is still at No. 112, although live rankings place her at No. 67. The two have never played each other, but in the dry desert heat under the midday sun, the match will be a true trial by fire of the young players.
All quarterfinals will be played on Thursday. The women’s singles semifinals will be played Friday, with a rest day Saturday and a Sunday final.